1977
DOI: 10.1056/nejm197709292971301
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Bayesian Analysis of Electrocardiographic Exercise Stress Testing

Abstract: We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of exercise-induced ST-segment depression in detecting coronary-artery disease by applying the likelihood-ratio formulation of Bayes's theorem to stress-test data, which were partitioned into half-millimeter ranges of depression. The graphic relation between the predictive value of a given test result and the pretest risk of disease in the test subjects was obtained for each of these half-millimeter intervals. This method reveals that the predictive value of testing depends… Show more

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Cited by 282 publications
(41 citation statements)
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“…Furthermore, in low-risk populations, a low positive predictive value of exercise ECG is predicted from Bayes' theorem. 27 We believe that our study is the first to employ exercise 20'Tl scintigraphy as a screening tool for predicting coronary events in an asymptomatic, community-dwelling population.`01T1, a potassium analogue, distributes throughout the heart in proportion to myocardial blood flow. By directly assessing relative myocardial perfusion rather than monitoring ST-segment shift, thallium scintigraphy might be expected to yield a lower false-positive rate than ECG in a low-risk population.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 82%
“…Furthermore, in low-risk populations, a low positive predictive value of exercise ECG is predicted from Bayes' theorem. 27 We believe that our study is the first to employ exercise 20'Tl scintigraphy as a screening tool for predicting coronary events in an asymptomatic, community-dwelling population.`01T1, a potassium analogue, distributes throughout the heart in proportion to myocardial blood flow. By directly assessing relative myocardial perfusion rather than monitoring ST-segment shift, thallium scintigraphy might be expected to yield a lower false-positive rate than ECG in a low-risk population.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 82%
“…The clinical and angiographic data on the patients are listed in table 1. In Distribution of probability estimates.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…11,12 This may not be appropriate for situations where there is a gradation of abnormality from mildly to severely abnormal. All commonly used stress test variables, the degree of underlying coronary disease, and the interpretation of the stress test itself have such a continuum from very mild to very severely abnormal.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%