Bass Model

Bulte, Christophe Van den

doi:10.1002/9781444316568.wiem05030

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Diffusion theory is an essential branch of communication theory [36]. The Bass model is widely used in the application and forecasting of new products and technologies [37,38], including many medical-related technologies [39][40][41]. The Bass model has 9 key assumptions [38,41], which mostly satisfy the scenarios of this study.…”

Section: Technology Diffusion Model and Bass Modelingmentioning

confidence: 85%

Adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) in China During the Past 10 Years: Consecutive Survey Data Analysis and Comparison of Sino-American Challenges and Experiences (Preprint)

Liang¹,

Li²,

Zhang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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BACKGROUND The adoption rate of electronic health records (EHRs) in hospitals has become a main index to measure digitalization in medicine in each country. OBJECTIVE This study summarizes and shares the experiences with EHR adoption in China and in the United States. METHODS Using the 2007-2018 annual hospital survey data from the Chinese Health Information Management Association (CHIMA) and the 2008-2017 United States American Hospital Association Information Technology Supplement survey data, we compared the trends in EHR adoption rates in China and the United States. We then used the Bass model to fit these data and to analyze the modes of diffusion of EHRs in these 2 countries. Finally, using the 2007, 2010, and 2014 CHIMA and Healthcare Information and Management Systems Services survey data, we analyzed the major challenges faced by hospitals in China and the United States in developing health information technology. RESULTS From 2007 to 2018, the average adoption rates of the sampled hospitals in China increased from 18.6% to 85.3%, compared to the increase from 9.4% to 96% in US hospitals from 2008 to 2017. The annual average adoption rates in Chinese and US hospitals were 6.1% and 9.6%, respectively. However, the annual average number of hospitals adopting EHRs was 1500 in China and 534 in the US, indicating that the former might require more effort. Both countries faced similar major challenges for hospital digitalization. CONCLUSIONS The adoption rates of hospital EHRs in China and the United States have both increased significantly in the past 10 years. The number of hospitals that adopted EHRs in China exceeded 16,000, which was 3.3 times that of the 4814 nonfederal US hospitals. This faster adoption outcome may have been a benefit of top-level design and government-led policies, particularly the inclusion of EHR adoption as an important indicator for performance evaluation and the appointment of public hospitals.

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Section: Technology Diffusion Model and Bass Modelingmentioning

confidence: 85%

Adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) in China During the Past 10 Years: Consecutive Survey Data Analysis and Comparison of Sino-American Challenges and Experiences (Preprint)

Liang¹,

Li²,

Zhang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Diffusion theory is an essential branch of communication theory that has long attracted the attention of scholars in management, marketing, and other disciplines [11]. The Bass model has been widely used in the application and forecasting analysis of new products and technologies [12,13], including many medical-related technologies [14][15][16]. The Bass model has 9 key assumptions [13,16], most of which satisfy the scenarios of this study (eg, market potential of the new product remains constant over time, the geographic boundaries of the social system do not change over the diffusion process).…”

Section: Technology Diffusion Model and Bass Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Applications of Health Information Technologies in China During the Past 11 Years: Consecutive Survey Data Analysis

Liang¹,

Liu²,

Zhang³

et al. 2020

JMIR Med Inform

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Background To achieve universal access to medical resources, China introduced its second health care reform in 2010, with health information technologies (HIT) as an important technical support point. Objective This study is the first attempt to explore the unique contributions and characteristics of HIT development in Chinese hospitals from the three major aspects of hospital HIT—human resources, funding, and materials—in an all-around, multi-angled, and time-longitudinal manner, so as to serve as a reference for decision makers in China and the rest of the world when formulating HIT development strategies. Methods A longitudinal research method is used to analyze the results of the CHIMA Annual Survey of Hospital Information System in China carried out by a Chinese national industrial association, CHIMA, from 2007 to 2018. The development characteristics of human resources, funding, and materials of HIT in China for the past 12 years are summarized. The Bass model is used to fit and predict the popularization trend of EMR in Chinese hospitals from 2007 to 2020. Results From 2007 to 2018, the CHIMA Annual Survey interviewed 10,954 hospital CIOs across 32 administrative regions in Mainland China. Compared with 2007, as of 2018, in terms of human resources, the average full time equivalent (FTE) count in each hospital’s IT center is still lower than the average level of US counterparts in 2014 (9.66 FTEs vs. 34 FTEs). The proportion of CIOs with a master’s degree or above was 25.61%, showing an increase of 18.51%, among which those with computer-related backgrounds accounted for 64.75%, however, those with a medical informatics background only accounted for 3.67%. In terms of funding, the sampled hospitals’ annual HIT investment increased from ¥957,700 (US $136,874) to ¥6.376 million (US $911,261), and the average investment per bed increased from ¥4,600 (US $658) to ¥8,100 (US $1158). In terms of information system construction, as of 2018, the average EMR implementation rate of the sampled hospitals exceeded the average level of their US counterparts in 2015 and their German counterparts in 2017 (85.26% vs. 83.8% vs. 68.4%, respectively). The results of the Bass prediction model show that Chinese hospitals will likely reach an adoption rate of 91.4% by 2020 (R2=0.95). Conclusions In more than 10 years, based on this top-down approach, China’s medical care industry has accepted government instructions and implemented the unified model planned by administrative intervention. With only about one-fifth of the required funding, and about one-fourth of the required human resources per hospital as compared to the US HITECH project, China’s EMR coverage in 2018 exceeded the average level of its US counterparts in 2015 and German counterparts in 2017. This experience deserves further study and analysis by other countries.

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“…The values of d, qw, and qc are identical across firms for simplicity. Comparing values of d and total WOM (qw + qc) with estimates of p and q in the Bass model is moot because the scaling of Bass model parameters is determined solely by the scaling of time (e.g., Van den Bulte 2011). Note, however, that the scaling of our parameters is consistent with annual p and q values for many consumer durables.…”

Section: Design Of Simulation Study With Agent-based Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

When to Take or Forgo New Product Exclusivity: Balancing Protection from Competition against Word-of-Mouth Spillover

Peres

Bulte

2014

Journal of Marketing

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Manufacturers or resellers introducing a new product often must decide whether and for how long to be its exclusive seller. Standard models of competition and conventional wisdom suggest that exclusivity boosts profits. However, using both agent-based simulations and game-theoretic modeling, the authors find that positive word of mouth (WOM) from customers of rival firms can make exclusivity unprofitable. This reversal of conventional wisdom occurs because WOM creates a positive externality, and a firm holding exclusivity cannot benefit from the WOM spillover generated by customers of other firms. The benefits of forgoing exclusivity are magnified by (1) the presence of locked-in customers who consider buying from only a single firm, (2) the extent to which opinion leaders are among a firm's own locked-in customers rather than those of competitors, and (3) customers' low price sensitivity. In addition, firms sometimes benefit from forgoing exclusivity even without WOM from rivals' customers, but only when the combination of large-scale lock-in, high price sensitivity, and strong WOM among the firm's customers exists.

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Bass Model

Cited by 4 publications

References 14 publications

Adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) in China During the Past 10 Years: Consecutive Survey Data Analysis and Comparison of Sino-American Challenges and Experiences (Preprint)

Adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) in China During the Past 10 Years: Consecutive Survey Data Analysis and Comparison of Sino-American Challenges and Experiences (Preprint)

Evaluating the Applications of Health Information Technologies in China During the Past 11 Years: Consecutive Survey Data Analysis

When to Take or Forgo New Product Exclusivity: Balancing Protection from Competition against Word-of-Mouth Spillover

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