Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

Ruijven, Bas van; Daenzer, Katie; Fisher‐Vanden, Karen; Kober, Tom; Paltsev, Sergey; Beach, Robert; Calderón, Silvia Liliana; Calvin, Katherine; Labriet, Maryse; Kitous, Alban; Lucena, André F.P.; Vuuren, Detlef van

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003

Cited by 36 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Within this context, Latin America is globally relevant due to: the large share of land-sector emissions (the region accounted for about 20% of global net emissions from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) in 2014; [6]); as well as the prospects of growing energy-related emissions in the forthcoming decades [7]. Among the major regional economies, Brazil’s NDC states the commitment to reduce all GHG emissions by 37% in 2025 and 43% in 2030 relative to 2005 levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions

et al. 2019

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In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations worldwide pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions—NDCs) to avert the threat of climate change, and agreed to periodically review these pledges to strengthen their level of ambition. Previous studies have analyzed NDCs largely in terms of their implied contribution to limit global warming, their implications on the energy sector or on mitigation costs. Nevertheless, a gap in the literature exists regarding the understanding of implications of the NDCs on countries’ Energy-Water-Land nexus resource systems. The present paper explores this angle within the regional context of Latin America by employing the Global Change Assessment Model, a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model capable of representing key system-wide interactions among nexus sectors and mitigation policies. By focusing on Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, we stress potential implications on national-level water demands depending on countries’ strategies to enforce energy-related emissions reductions and their interplays with the land sector. Despite the differential implications of the Paris pledges on each country, increased water demands for crop and biomass irrigation and for electricity generation stand out as potential trade-offs that may emerge under the NDC policy. Hence, this study underscores the need of considering a nexus resource planning framework (known as “Nexus Approach”) in the forthcoming NDCs updating cycles as a mean to contribute toward sustainable development.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions

et al. 2019

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“…In part, it is explained by the fact that some studies assumed stringent climate policies before 2010 or 2020. While a discussion of performance of some of these models under business‐as‐usual scenarios reveals a better calibration to the historic data, Figure clearly shows a substantial over‐optimism by some modeling groups for the short‐term climate related actions. The pace of the climate policy adopted by the UN makes many of these optimistic scenarios irrelevant by placing a need for much faster speed of energy transformation for the stringent climate goals.…”

Section: Longer‐term Scenarios: Climate‐policy Related Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

Paltsev

2016

WIREs Energy & Environment

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A need for low‐carbon world has added a new challenging dimension for the long‐term energy scenarios development. In addition to the traditional factors like technological progress, demographic, economic, political, and institutional considerations, there is another aspect of the modern energy forecasts related to the coverage, timing, and stringency of policies to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. Modern tools for the energy scenario development provide a good basis for the estimates of the required changes in the energy system to achieve certain climate and environmental targets. While the current scenarios show that a move to a low‐carbon energy future requires a drastic change in energy investment and the resulting mix in energy technologies, the exact technology mix, paths to the needed mix, price, and cost projections should be treated with a great degree of caution. The scenarios do not provide exact predictions, but they can be used as a qualitative analysis of decision‐making risks associated with different pathways. If history is any guide, energy scenarios overestimate the extent to which the future will look like the recent past. As future costs and the resulting technology mixes are uncertain, a wise government policy is to target emissions reductions from any source, rather than focus on boosting certain kinds of low‐carbon energy. WIREs Energy Environ 2017, 6:e242. doi: 10.1002/wene.242 This article is categorized under: Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy Energy and Climate > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Policy and Planning > Economics and Policy

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“…3 ). Absent efforts to constrain emissions, fossil technologies in LAC are projected to expand 35 (Supplementary Figs. 2 ─ 3 provide projections from the GCAM Baseline (No Policy) scenario, which assumes no emissions mitigation actions throughout the 21 st century).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

et al. 2021

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Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

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Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

Cited by 36 publications

References 22 publications

The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions

The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions

Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

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