Baseline and on‐treatment HBcrAg levels as predictors of HBeAg seroconversion in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with antivirals

Abstract

HBeAg seroconversion is an important treatment endpoint. We aimed to identify predictors of seroconversion using serum HBsAg and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) in HBeAg-positive patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs). Data and samples from 70 HBeAg-positive patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir between January 2007 and December 2017 were retrospectively analysed. The mean follow-up period was 11 years. The predictive power for HBeAg seroconversion of HBcrAg levels at baseline and 2 years after antiviral therapy was determined using receiver operating curve analysis. Twenty-one patients (30%) achieved HBeAg seroconversion at a mean of 28 (range, 12-84) months after antiviral treatment. The median baseline HBcrAg and HBsAg levels were 6.9(5.7-7.0) vs. 5.8(5.5-6.5) log 10 U/mL (p = .006), 4.9(4.5-5.1) vs. 4.5(4.1-5.0) log 10 IU/mL (p = .044) in the no seroconversion group and seroconversion group, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, the serum HBcrAg levels at baseline and 2 years after antiviral therapy were predictive factors for HBeAg seroconversion ([HR]; 0.326; [CI], 0.111-0.958; p = .042 and HR, 0.4555; CI, 0.211-0.984; p = .045). HBcrAg levels≤6.5log 10 U/mL at baseline and ≤5.3log 10 U/ mL at 2 years after antiviral therapy had sensitivities of 53.1% and 69.8%, specificities of 95.2% and 70.6%, positive predictive values of 82.6% and 50.0%, and negative predictive values of 82.6% and 84.5%, respectively, with AUROCs of 0.712 (95%CI, 0.596-0.830) and 0.745 (95%CI, 0.599-0.891) for predicting HBeAg seroconversion. In chronic hepatitis B patients treated with NAs, HBcrAg levels≤6.5log 10 U/mL at baseline and ≤5.3log 10 U/mL at 2 years after antiviral therapy were useful predictive factors of HBeAg seroconversion.