Bankable Feasibility Study for Rogun HEP Stage 1 construction completion in Tajikistan

Schmidt, Rezső; Zambaga-Schulz, S; Seibitz, M

doi:10.1201/b16818-66

Cited by 3 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…Estimates of the relative proportion of runoff generation coming from Tajikistan vary widely according to the literature (e.g. Sherman and Rafikov 1991, Giese et al 2004, Schmidt et al 2006. In this paper, we retain the values of Giese et al, who reported an annual mean discharge of 20.0 km 3 year -1 for the Vakhsh River and a mean discharge of 34.3 km 3 year -1 for the Pyandj River.…”

Section: Geographical Settingmentioning

confidence: 66%

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

Chevallier

Pouyaud

Mojaisky³

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime, which could be strongly modified by climate change. The present study, part of a project funded by the European Commission, analyses the hydrological situation in six benchmark basins covering areas of between 1800 and 8400 km 2 , essentially located in Tajikistan, with a variety of topographical situations, precipitation amounts and glacierized areas. Four types of parameter are discussed: temperature, glaciation, snow cover and river flows. The study is based mainly on a long-time series that ended in the 1990s (with the collapse of the Soviet Union) and on field observations and data collection. In addition, a short, more recent period (May 2000 to May 2002) was examined to better understand the role of snow cover, using scarce monitored data and satellite information. The results confirm the overall homogeneous trend of temperature increase in the mountain range and its impacts on the surface water regime. Concerning the snow cover, significant differences are noted in the location, elevation, orientation and morphology of snow cover in the respective basins. The changes in the river flow regime are regulated by the combination of the snow cover dynamics and the increasing trend of the air temperature.

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Section: Geographical Settingmentioning

confidence: 66%

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

Chevallier

Pouyaud

Mojaisky³

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…The possibility of dam failure cannot be easily included in an annual optimization model of the type used in this article, so we offer a qualitative assessment based on information available in the literature. Global maps of earthquake intensity risk indicate that the planned location of the Rogun Dam is an area with extremely high seismicity (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction [ISDR], 2008), and this risk was confirmed by geological investigations during the design phase (Gill et al, 2014;Schmidt et al, 2006). Earthquakes reaching 6-7 on the Richter scale occur frequently in the neighbouring region; such events have provoked landslides, ruptures of the land surface and consequent destruction of several villages, with loss of life (ADRC, 2006;Schmidt et al, 2006;Teshebaeva, Sudhaus, Echtler, Schurr, & Roessner, 2014).…”

Section: Benefits (Usd Millions)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If the dam is built to full scale, it will have an energy production capacity of 3600 MW (Eurasian Development Bank [EADB], 2008), and at 335 metres it will be the tallest dam in the world (Schmidt, Zambaga-Schulz, & Seibitz, 2006;World Bank, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How would the Rogun Dam affect water and energy scarcity in Central Asia?

Bekchanov

Ringler

Bhaduri

et al. 2015

Water International

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The construction of the Rogun Dam in the Amu Darya Basin to increase upstream energy generation creates potential trade-offs with existing downstream irrigation, due to the different timing of energy and irrigation water demands. The present analysis, based on a hydro-economic optimization model, shows that cooperative basin-wide maximization of benefits would lead to large increases in upstream hydropower production and only minor changes in downstream irrigation benefits. However, if upstream stations, including Rogun, are managed unilaterally to maximize energy production, hydropower benefits might more than double while irrigation benefits greatly decrease, thereby substantially reducing overall basin benefits.

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“…The hydraulic potential of the Vakhsh River is mainly used for energy generation but to a small extent also for irrigation purposes. Over 95% of electricity in Tajikistan is generated by hydrolelectricity power plants, particularly Nurek HEP (10.5 TWh/a) (Schmidt et al, 2006). Originally the Nurek dam was designed and used to increase the water supply during the irrigation season.…”

Section: Upstream Damsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The World Bank, and more recently the feasibility study of the construction company Lahmeyer International (Schmidt et al, 2006) did this and distinguished between different stages of dam construction. In Stage I, Rogun is supposed to provide an annual energy output of 5.6 TWh.…”

Section: Rogun Dam -Increasing the Hydropower Outputmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role Of The Amu Darya Dams And Reservoirs In Future Water Supply In The Amu Darya Basin

Olsson¹,

Bauer²,

Ikramova

et al.

Environmental Problems of Central Asia and Their Economic, Social and Security Impacts

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Central Asia still remains as an area of substantial water stress problems caused by climate change, over-consumption of water resources and soil salinization. The rapid recession of glaciers along with a concurrent increasing frequency and intensity of extreme droughts has led to a progressive reduction of the already scarce resources. As in many other arid and semi-arid zones, surface waters in Central Asia are heavily regulated by extended river-reservoir systems, which affect both the quantity and the quality of water. The large dams and reservoirs of the Amu Darya basin should not only be a matter of international dispute, but also considered as an option to adapt to climate and global change and to the future water shortage in the region. With the Nurek and Rogun dams in the upstream part of the Amu Darya basin and the downstream dam system, the Tuyamuyun Hydroengineering Complex (THC), the region already has a high potential for improving the future water supply by adapting the management of the dams according to site specifications. The main scope of this study is to introduce this potential as an applicable instrument for implementing a sustainable water management strategy in the Amu Darya ______ *

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Bankable Feasibility Study for Rogun HEP Stage 1 construction completion in Tajikistan

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

How would the Rogun Dam affect water and energy scarcity in Central Asia?

The Role Of The Amu Darya Dams And Reservoirs In Future Water Supply In The Amu Darya Basin

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