Bank Stability and Systemic Risk Measurement

Abstract

The banking system’s role as an intermediary between depositors and borrowers makes its stability a crucial element of the economy. Individual bank stability impacts the stability of the financial sector and, consequently, the real sector and economic growth. This study is a detailed investigation of bank stability scores for the Turkish banking sector. Turkey experienced a major banking crisis from 2000 to 2001. However, with an improved regulatory environment and structural reforms, its resilience to shocks increased significantly in subsequent years. The present study contributes to the literature in three areas. First, it applies eight variations of the Z-score to the Turkish banking sector to test the importance of time and risk variation. Second, it investigates the impact on stability scores of several factors–the implementation of new capital regulations and Basel III liquidity rules, the Turkish lira crisis and the effects of COVID-19). Finally, it measures the contribution to systemic risk of each Turkish bank using the leave-one-out (LOO) Z-score method; this is the first study to use this method to analyse the contribution of different bank types to the overall stability of the sector.