Abstract. Climate change and the associated glacier retreat lead to
considerable enlargement and alterations of the proglacial systems. The
colonisation of plants in this ecosystem was found to be highly dependent on
terrain age, initial site conditions and geomorphic disturbances. Although
the explanatory variables are generally well understood, there is little
knowledge on their collinearities and resulting influence on proglacial
primary succession. To develop a sphere-spanning understanding of vegetation
development, a more interdisciplinary approach was adopted. In the
proglacial areas of Fürkeleferner, Zufallferner and Langenferner (Martell
Valley, Eastern Italian Alps), in total 65 plots of 5×2 m were
installed to perform the vegetation analysis on vegetation cover, species
number and species composition. For each of those, 39 potential explanatory
variables were collected, selected through an extensive literature review.
To analyse and further avoid multicollinearities, 33 of the explanatory
variables were clustered via principal component analysis (PCA) to five
components. Subsequently, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to
analyse the potential explanatory factors of primary succession. The results
showed that primary succession patterns were highly related to the first
component (elevation and time), the second component (solar radiation),
the third component (soil chemistry), the fifth component
(soil physics) and landforms. In summary, the analysis of all explanatory
variables together provides an overview of the most important influencing
variables and their interactions; thus it provides a basis for the debate on future
vegetation development in a changing climate.