Baltic Sea ocean climate: an analysis of 100 yr of hydrographic data with focus on the freshwater budget

Winsor, Peter; Rodhe, Johan; Omstedt, Anders

doi:10.3354/cr018005

Cited by 103 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…This, in turn, will influence significantly light conditions for phytoplankton growth and the entire food web in the Bothnian Bay and Bothnian Sea, since allochthonous organic carbon is a main energy source for the pelagic food web (Sandberg et al, 2004). Whether alkalinity may increase or decrease is difficult to evaluate, since a higher riverine input might be compensated by a potential higher freshness of the Baltic Sea when total river runoff will increase (Winsor et al, 2001). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea – past and possible future perspectives

Humborg

Mörth

Sundbom

et al. 2007

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The paper reviews critical processes for the landsea fluxes of biogenic elements (C, N, P, Si) in the Baltic Sea catchment and discusses possible future scenarios as a consequence of improved sewage treatment, agricultural practices and increased hydropower demand (for N, P and Si) and of global warming, i.e., changes in hydrological patterns (for C). These most significant drivers will not only change the total amount of nutrient inputs and fluxes of organic and inorganic forms of carbon to the Baltic Sea, their ratio (C:N:P:Si) will alter as well with consequences for phytoplankton species composition in the Baltic Sea. In summary, we propose that N fluxes may increase due to higher livestock densities in those countries recently acceded to the EU, whereas P and Si fluxes may decrease due to an improved sewage treatment in these new EU member states and with further damming and still eutrophic states of many lakes in the entire Baltic Sea catchment. This might eventually decrease cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic but increase the potential for other nuisance blooms. Dinoflagellates could eventually substitute diatoms that even today grow below their optimal growth conditions due to low Si concentrations in some regions of the Baltic Sea. C fluxes will probably increase from the boreal part of the Baltic Sea catchment due to the expected higher temperatures and heavier rainfall. However, it is not clear whether dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity, which have opposite feedbacks to global warming, will increase in similar amounts, because the spring flow peak will be smoothed out in time due to higher temperatures that cause less snow cover and deeper soil infiltration.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea – past and possible future perspectives

Humborg

Mörth

Sundbom

et al. 2007

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…For the vertical structure of the Baltic Sea and in particularly salinity this is, however, not appropriate. Due to the reduced exchange through the Baltic Sea entrance area, with a typical freshwater residence time of about 34 yr (Winsor et al 2000), simulations of time periods of 10 yr are too short. This implies that for Baltic Sea climate studies the whole scenario run from the present to the year 2100 needs to be considered.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Winsor et al (2000) have demonstrated that the salinity at the Gotland Deep (Stn BY15) represents the Baltic Sea salt content very well. We will therefore evaluate the response in salinity due to the different forcing fields by showing the results from the Eastern Gotland Basin (Fig.…”

Section: Vertical Structure Of Salinitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of Baltic Sea modelling to investigate the water cycle and the heat balance in GCM and regional climate models

Omstedt

Gustafsson²,

Rodhe³

et al. 2000

Clim. Res.

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Results from the first simulations with the Rossby Centre regional climate atmosphere (RCA) model were used to force 2 versions of process-oriented models of the Baltic Sea -one timedependent, the other considering the mean state. The purpose was primarily to obtain a first scenario of the future state of the Baltic Sea. In addition, we looked at this exercise as a method to evaluate the consistency of the water cycle and the heat balance produced by atmospheric climate models. The RCA model is a high-resolution atmospheric regional model which is forced with lateral conditions from a global model. A large-scale Baltic drainage basin hydrological model, forced by the RCA model, was used to simulate river runoff. Using RCA model data from the control run we found that that the temperature and ice conditions in the Baltic Sea were reasonably realistic while the salinity field was poorly reproduced. We conclude that the modelling of the water cycle needs considerable improvement. We also conclude that the time for the Baltic Sea to respond to the water cycle is much longer than the integration period so far used with the RCA model. Forcing the ocean models with RCA model data from a future scenario with an enhanced greenhouse effect gives an increased sea-surface temperature and a much reduced extent of ice in the Baltic Sea due to climate warming. Also the salinity is reduced, which implies possible serious effects on the future marine life in the Baltic Sea. The results demonstrate that accurate atmospheric modelling of not only the heat balance but also the water cycle is crucial for Baltic Sea climate simulations.

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“…A long-term analysis of 100 years of hydrographic data with focus on the freshwater budget (Winsor et al 2001(Winsor et al , 2003 indicates that freshwater supply to the Baltic Sea has large variations on time scales up to several decades. A similar result has been obtained by Omstedt et al (2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Dippner

Kornilovs

Junker

2012

AMBIO

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Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.

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Baltic Sea ocean climate: an analysis of 100 yr of hydrographic data with focus on the freshwater budget

Cited by 103 publications

References 8 publications

Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea – past and possible future perspectives

Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea – past and possible future perspectives

Use of Baltic Sea modelling to investigate the water cycle and the heat balance in GCM and regional climate models

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

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