Balancing Capacity and Epidemic Spread in the Global Airline Network

Abstract

The structure of complex networks has long been understood to play a role in transmission and spreading phenomena on a graph. This behavior is difficult to model analytically and is most often modeled numerically. Such networks form an important part of the structure of society, including transportation networks. As society fights to control the COVID-19 pandemic, an important question is to choose the optimum balance between the full opening of transport networks and the control of epidemic spread. In this paper we investigate how recent advances in analyzing network structure using information theory could inform decisions regarding the opening of such networks. By virtue of the richness of data available we focus upon the worldwide airline network, but these methods are in principle applicable to any transport network. We are able to demonstrate that it is possible to substantially open the airline network and have some degree of control on the spread of the virus.