Bail Prediction

Abstract

The concurrent impact of individual and neighborhood effects on defendant pretrial performance has not been studied. This study asks whether there is neighborhood-level variation in defendants’ failure to appear and pretrial crime and explores the impact of three neighborhood structural conditions (socioeconomic status, stability, and racial composition). The study was conducted in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on a 2005 sample of defendants (N = 800), followed for a year to record bail outcomes. Defendants’ residences were geocoded within 45 neighborhoods. Census data were used for neighborhood structural characteristics. Multilevel analyses (hierarchical linear modeling) found no neighborhood variation. However, individual-level results indicate that a defendant’s neighborhood status and stability are negatively related to rearrest. Defendants from more affluent and stable neighborhoods are less likely to be rearrested for new crime. Although reliance on individual-level prediction at bail seems warranted, the study underscores the need to further explore the linkage between neighborhood conditions and pretrial outcomes.

Punishing Neighborhood “Outsiders”: Neighborhood Punishment Rates and the Spatial Mis(match) Between Defendants’ Residence and Arrest Locations

“…These findings not only offer support for hypothesis 2 and partial support for hypothesis 3, but largely comport with previous studies of individual-level (Auerhahn et al, 2017; Cooney & Burt, 2008; Simes, 2020; St. Louis, 2020; Vilcica & Goldkamp, 2015; Wooldredge, 2007; Wooldredge et al, 2016) and neighborhood-level case outcomes (Burch, 2014; Clear, 2008; Omori, 2017; Petersen et al, 2019; Sampson, 2012). For example, Petersen et al (2019) argued that increased “suppression prosecution” may exist for low-level disorder crimes that are clustered in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods, suggesting these community-level outcomes may reinforce existing disparities in these already marginalized communities.…”

“…Much of the research on neighborhoods and criminal justice has focused on individual-level outcomes rather than neighborhood analyses (Auerhahn et al, 2017; Pinchevsky & Steiner, 2016; Simes, 2020; St. Louis, 2020; Vilcica & Goldkamp, 2015; Wooldredge, 2007; Wooldredge et al, 2016; Wooldredge & Thistlethwaite, 2004). Drawing upon community protection arguments from the focal concerns perspective, several authors argue that prosecutors’ and judges’ decisions are impacted by neighborhood stereotypes linking the defendants’ crimes to their communities of origin (Auerhahn et al, 2017; Wooldredge et al, 2016; Wooldredge & Thistlethwaite, 2004).…”

Neighborhood context and racial/ethnic disparities in judicial processing

“…Stereotypes of neighborhoods and their residents may further fuel negative attitudes toward defendants, prompting greater recognition and correction of unconscious perceptions that structure judgments (Levinson, Bennett, & Hioki, 2017). Next, practitioners should be wary of evidence‐based sentencing instruments or risk assessments that make use of neighborhood conditions to guide decision outcomes (Dobbie & Yang, 2019; Maroun, 2019; Vîlcică & Goldkamp, 2015). As Starr (2014) explains, neighborhood considerations unwisely concentrate “punitive impact among those who already bear its brunt” (p. 806) and reinforce group‐based disadvantages like long periods of confinement on individuals.…”