Backtracking: Improved methods for identifying the source of a deliberate release ofBacillus anthracisfrom the temporal and spatial distribution of cases
Abstract:Reverse epidemiology is a mathematical modelling tool used to ascertain information about the source of a pathogen, given the spatial and temporal distribution of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. In the context of a deliberately released pathogen, such asBacillus anthracis(the disease-causing organism of anthrax), this can allow responders to quickly identify the location and timing of the release, as well as other factors such as the strength of the release, and the realized wind speed and direction at rel… Show more
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