Back to the future: What do accident causation models tell us about accident prediction?

Grant, Eryn; Salmon, Paul M.; Stevens, Nicholas

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2017.12.018

Cited by 114 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Accident causation methods are broadly applied in the marine traffic field. To study MTAs' occurrence mechanism, the first thing is to understand the causes of the accident and the interaction of the factors that cause the accident [6,7]. Marine accidents result from a combination of complex conditions.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

et al. 2019

JMSE

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Many causal factors to marine traffic accidents (MTAs) influence each other and have associated effects. It is necessary to quantify the correlation path mode of these factors to improve accident prevention measures and their effects. In the application of human factors to accident mechanisms, the complex structural chains on causes to MTA systems were analyzed by combining the human failure analysis and classification system (HFACS) with theoretical structural equation modeling (SEM). First, the accident causation model was established as a human error analysis classification in sight of a MTA, and the constituent elements of the causes of the accident were conducted. Second, a hypothetical model of human factors classification was proposed by applying the practice of the structural model. Third, with the data resources from ship accident cases, this hypothetical model was discussed and simulated, and as a result, the relationship path dependency mode between the latent independent variable of the accident was quantitatively analyzed based on the observed dependent variable of human behavior. Application examples show that relationships in the HFACS are verified and in line with the path developing mode, and resource management factors have a pronounced influence and a strong relevance to the causal chain of the accidents. Appropriate algorithms for the theoretical model can be used to numerically understand the safety performance of marine traffic systems under different parameters through mathematical analysis. Hierarchical assumptions in the HFACS model are quantitatively verified.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

et al. 2019

JMSE

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“…The widespread use of software also changes human-computer interaction and operator behavior, making new features for human and organizational errors. The dominance depends mainly on the type and quality of the feedback information received by the human, as well as the operational context information in which the human operates [31].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics Simulation for Process Risk Evolution on the Bunker Operation of an LNG-fueled Vessel with Catastrophe Mathematical Models

Xuan

et al. 2019

JMSE

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Liquefied nature gas (LNG) is a green energy. LNG-fueled vessels are extremely complex engineering systems. In view of the inherent hazardous properties of LNG fuel, LNG fueling is not only an important part, but it is also full of high risks in the operation of LNG-fueled vessels (LNGFVs). Therefore, it is necessary to study the risk factors, and the intrinsic relationship among them between the LNG and the vessel, and to simulate the system dynamics in the process of LNGFV operation. During the process of fueling of LNGFV, at every moment the vessel interacts with the energy and information of the surrounding environment. First, the impact of the three interactions of the fueling operation process, ship factors, and environmental factors were analyzed on the risk of fueling operation, and a complete node system was proposed as to the complex system dynamics mode. Second, by analyzing the boundary conditions of the system, the relationship of factors was established via the tools of system dynamics (SD). Based on the catastrophe theory (CA), the dynamics model for the fueling of LNG is set up to study the system’s risk mutation phenomenon. Third, combined with the simulation results of the case analysis, the risk evolution mode of the LNGFV during the fueling process was obtained, and constructive opinions were put forward for improving the safe fueling of the LNGFV. Application examples show that formal description of risk emergence and transition is a prerequisite for the quantitative analysis of the risk evolution mode. In order to prevent accidents, the coupling synchronization of risk emergence should be weakened, and meanwhile risk control should be implemented.

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“…Accident causation methods were broadly applied in marine traffic field.To study MTA occurrence mechanism, the first thing is to understand the causes of the accident and the interaction of the factors that cause the accident. (Pidgeon et al, 2000;Grant et al, 2018). Marine accidents result from a combination of complex conditions.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

Hu¹,

Li²,

Xi³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Many causal factors to marine traffic accidents (MTA) influence each other and have associated effects. It is necessary to quantify the correlation path mode of these factors to improve accident prevention measures and their effects. In the application of human factors to the accident mechanisms, the complex structural chains on causes to MTA systems were analyzed combining the Human Failure Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with theoretical Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). First, the accident causation model was established as a human error analysis classification in sight of MTA, and the constituent elements of the causes of accident was conducted. Second, a hypothetical model of Human factors classification was proposed applying the practice of the structural model. Third, with the data resource from ship accident cases, this hypothetical model was discussed and simulated, and as a result the relationship path dependency mode between the latent independent variable of the accident was quantitatively analyzed based on the observed dependent variable of human behaviors. Application examples show that relationships in HFACS are verified and in line with the path developing mode, and resource management factors have a pronounced influence and a strong relevance to the causal chain of the accidents. Appropriate algorithms for the theoretical model can be used to numerically understand the safety performance of marine traffic systems under different parameters through mathematical analysis. Hierarchical assumptions in the HFACS model are quantitatively verified.

show abstract

Back to the future: What do accident causation models tell us about accident prediction?

Cited by 114 publications

References 47 publications

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

Dynamics Simulation for Process Risk Evolution on the Bunker Operation of an LNG-fueled Vessel with Catastrophe Mathematical Models

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

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