Avert catastrophe now in Africa’s Sahel

Abstract

W orld leaders have a disappointing record when it comes to crises that take decades to unfold. Much greater investment in the prevention of HIV/AIDS in the 1980s could have saved millions of lives and billions of dollars 20 years later, for instance. The western Sahel region of Africa lies between the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sudanian Savannah to the south. By 2050, the region's population is expected to more than double, to 450 million 1 , and temperatures there are expected to rise to about 3 °C above their 1950 level. Already, hunger and malnutrition are widespread in the Sahel. As droughts and other weather extremes make it even harder for farmers to produce the crops and livestock needed to sustain the growing population, conflict and terrorism will increase 2. As conditions worsen, millions of people could die in famines, and there is likely to be unprecedented levels of migration, including to Europe 3. Our analyses of population projections and the probable impacts of climate change on food security in this ecologically vulnerable zone indicate that four steps are needed to head off these effects. We call on governments worldwide, together with those Avert catastrophe now in Africa's Sahel Alisha Graves, Lorenzo Rosa, Abdoul Moumouni Nouhou, Fadji Maina, Djimé Adoum and 5 cosignatories Governments worldwide must invest in girls' education, family planning, agriculture and security in this vulnerable region. Women in Niger and other parts of the Sahel are among the least empowered globally, but various efforts are starting to provide solutions.

Global agricultural economic water scarcity

“…On the consumption side, food waste reduction (36), moderating reliance on first generation biofuels, reducing meat consumption, and improving resource use efficiency (37) can be adopted to sustainably reduce food demand while improving water and food security without requiring an increase in production (3). Moreover, investing in girls' education and expanding people's access to family planning are other valuable strategies that could be adopted to limit population growth and reduce future food demand (38).…”

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

“…The hydrologic models used do not account for all existing water infrastructure or the feasibility of their expansion. Inclusion of these factors, as well as changing domestic and industrial water demand (46), and other soft-path water management practices, such as mulching, pitting, terracing, no-till farming, and agroforestry (22,47), would likely reduce the amount of water available or needed for irrigation. In this sense, the estimates provided by this study serve as an upper limit to irrigation water needs.…”

Seasonal Variation of Household Food Insecurity and Household Dietary Diversity on Wasting and Stunting among Young Children in A Drought Prone Area in South Ethiopia: A Cohort Study

“…Globally, about 800 million people are food unsecured and 2 billion people experience micronutrient deficiencies (Pérez-Escamilla 2017). Food insecurity is a public health problem, especially in the African Sahel and in the lowlands in Ethiopia which has often been affected by drought and famines (Graves et al 2019;Lindtjørn 1990;Regassa and Stoecker 2012). Food insecurity emerges as a predictor of child wasting and stunting.…”