Availability of Weapon Systems With Logistic Delays: A Simulation Approach

Upadhya, Kamleshwar; Srinivasan, N. K.

doi:10.1142/s0218539303001251

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Srinivasan [71], [72], [78], [79] studied the weapon system availability due to combat damage, performing simulation, and obtained ready to use estimates for availability of weapon systems, aircraft and weapons, [80]. Sonawane and Srinivasan [80].…”

Section: Survivability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and application of a value driven design assessment framework to an unmanned air system design

Papageorgiou

2018

2018 Advances in Science and Engineering Technology International Conferences (ASET)

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The work presented in this thesis concerns the development of a value driven engineering design assessment framework and its application to the conceptual design of an Unmanned Air System (UAS) to be utilised in a defence application. This research demonstrates the implementation of the value driven design philosophy in this framework, identifying value enhancing designs, with value not converted to monetary worth and as perceived by all stakeholders involved. A multi-criteria and multi-stakeholder decision making analysis is adopted to address their preferences as well as to study their interacting strategic choices. The ultimate objective of this framework is to convert engineering design to a decision making analysis with multiple conflicting objectives of multiple stakeholders considered.This framework is capable of providing a product definition and estimation of all performance and cost related attributes for the conceptual phase. However, instead of pertaining to a single aircraft concept, a broad range of combinations of UAS configurations and geometries is generated by systematically searching alternative concepts and design configurations through a novel parameterization of the aircraft geometric topologies.Value, related to the designed system's capabilities or performance and lifecycle cost, is used to compare different alternatives in the decision making of engineering design through the appropriate value model. Following a valuefocused approach, a novel multi-attribute value model is introduced for objectively capturing the stakeholder's preferences and expectations. Furthermore, a more sophisticated multi-attribute utility model, based on standard Multi-attribute Utility Theory, is employed in the evaluation.Game Theory as an optimization tool is used to develop a novel hybrid cooperative/non-cooperative non-zero sum, complete information game among all involved stakeholders as players. This game successfully addresses the stakeholders' preferences in a functional outcome-focused way, resolving the high indeterminacy of the alternative designs through a cooperative game. At the same time, their strategic interactions are captured in a process-focused non-cooperative game. Hence, the optimal design is identified through the simultaneous employment of the Nash bargaining solution and the Nash equilibrium.i

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Section: Survivability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and application of a value driven design assessment framework to an unmanned air system design

Papageorgiou

2018

2018 Advances in Science and Engineering Technology International Conferences (ASET)

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“…• Scheduled maintenance requirements are represented by a third distribution and this is overlaid with the two unscheduled inputs [5].…”

Section: C720mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We use a randomised uniform distribution for inter-arrival times that relate to regular repair demands and a randomised exponential distribution (the distribution of times between events in a Poisson process) for those relating to irregular memoryless failure [5].…”

Section: Decay Random Variatementioning

confidence: 99%

Determining some of the triggers for early life cycle failure in decay affected logistic queueing simulation

Sherman¹,

Pincombe²,

Bender³

2010

ANZIAMJ

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Life-cycle cost estimates for large scale, long term, future military capabilities are difficult to make and subject to complexities. Usually they are generated from anecdotal experience. However, experience may not be a sound basis, so modelling and simulation are employed to define conditions that lead to early system failure in measures such as availability levels or the capability's life-of-type. Such models typically have common characteristics, including decay or degradation, queueing delays, availability of resources, and maintenance processes. Our generic model is a queue server, discrete event simulation that emulates macroscopic maintenance processes using time based parameters and statistical distributions. Previously we reported that the simulated system shows evidence of bifurcation-like behaviour in life-of-type estimates. This suggested that uncertainties in microscopic variables (such as inter-arrival times) cause instabilities in high level strategic perfor- Contents C716mance indicators, making the prediction of such indicators difficult and bringing into question the use of mean based estimation methods for inventory provisioning. Our objective is to define the conditions which lead to system failure. We use a series of numerical simulation experiments to investigate and define such conditions. Outcomes show that system performance is sensitive to the types of input distribution used and that decay processes are strongly associated with complex behaviour even when most of the interacting factors of the real system have been removed from the simulation.

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“…During campaigns, maintaining a high level of availability of weapon systems becomes difficult. The availability of the weapon platforms decreases to a low level within the first few days of the battle [1,2,3]. This is mainly due to logistic delays affecting the repair process and attrition factors such as battle damage failures and reliability related failures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In [1], the weapon system as a whole (i.e., the aircraft as an entity) was considered for failure. In [2], the different subsystems of the aircraft were considered. The repair process with logistic delay as an entity was considered at three repair levels, i.e., base level, intermediate level and the depot level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Availability of Weapon Systems with Air-attack Missions

Upadhya

Srinivasan²

2004

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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During air-attack operations, i.e., air-to-air and land-air operations in battles, maintaining a high level of availability of weapon systems (aircraft and weapons) becomes important from the point of view of winning the battle. Availability may depend on severity of combat operations, attrition factors (battle damage failures and reliability related failures), and logistic delays in weapons deployment and in the repair process. In this paper, a simulation model is developed for availability of weapon systems considering air-to-air and land-air combat operations, multiple failures causing aircraft failure and logistic delays in weapons deployment, and in the repair process. The availability of aircraft and the availability of weapons are separately derived from simulation and the product of them is denoted as combined availability for analysis. The results are analyzed in terms of fluctuations in availability on specified days of battle such as 1, 7, 14, and 21 days from the graphical output. The simulation procedure employs discrete event simulation technique using Monte Carlo methods. The time to failure distribution and the time to repair distribution for the major subsystems of the aircraft and helicopters is considered to be Weibull and exponential respectively. The logistic delay time distribution for weapons replenishment and for logistic factors, spares, crew, and equipment, is considered to be lognormal. Assuming a certain range of values for air-attack missions and for the number of sorties to be generated and a set of reliability and maintainability parameters for the considered major subsystems of the aircraft, the simulation for availability is analyzed. The number of aircraft (both fixed wing and rotary wing) for different missions is varied. The possible reduction in availability due to changes in logistic factors, considering two extreme cases noted as optimistic and pessimistic is specifically examined through simulation runs. The results obtained indicate the pronounced decrease in availability of weapon systems and their fluctuations due to multiple failures and logistic delays in weapons replenishment and in the repair process. The results are, however, highly sensitive to a combination of reliability, maintainability, and logistic delay parameters.

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Availability of Weapon Systems With Logistic Delays: A Simulation Approach

Cited by 13 publications

References 7 publications

Development and application of a value driven design assessment framework to an unmanned air system design

Development and application of a value driven design assessment framework to an unmanned air system design

Determining some of the triggers for early life cycle failure in decay affected logistic queueing simulation

Availability of Weapon Systems with Air-attack Missions

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