Australia is ‘free to choose’ economic growth and falling environmental pressures

Abstract

Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth's ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy-water-food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.

Leverage points for sustainability transformation

“…As globalisation and industrialisation have expanded, societies increasingly rely on distal ecosystems for provision of goods and services. While Hatfield-Dodds et al (2015) argue that economic growth can be decoupled from environmental impacts, it is questionable whether decoupling can truly occur on a global scale, with evidence that economic development leads to a shift from local to global material consumption (Wiedmann et al 2015). Scholars have called for a strengthening of the direct material links between people and nature in local ecosystems (e.g.…”

Towards a circular economy: insights based on the development of the global ENGAGE-materials model and evidence for the iron and steel industry

“…The Australian National Outlook (Hatfield-Dodds et al 2015a) uses this combination of interlinked models, including GTEM, to analyse Australia's options in achieving sustainable prosperity out until 2050. Hatfield-Dodds et al (2015b) use the same overall modelling framework as the national outlook in an article which shows that Australia can continue with economic growth while reducing environmental pressures. Schandl et al (2016) use the framework to consider the ability to decouple environmental pressure and economic growth.…”

Implications of urbanization related land use change on the Carbon and Nitrogen cycle from subtropical soils

“…In addition, the tropical and subtropical climatic zone will play a significant role in achieving global food security in the future (FAO and ITPS 2015). Australia has great potential to reduce GHG emissions, which is currently four times the global average (Hatfield-Dodds et al 2015), by limiting management intensities and improve C sequestration strategies.…”

“…One tenth of the current Australian GHG inventory of approximately 525,202 Gt CO 2 -e (AGEIS, 2015) is accounted for by emissions due to land use change and management (Hatfield-Dodds et al, 2015). With 17,320 ha of turf grass being established in Australia annually and nearly half distributed in tropical and subtropical Queensland (ABS, 2012;Turf Australia, 2012), the non-CO 2 GHG emissions for the establishment alone could be estimated from the non-CO 2 GWP presented here of up to 7,326 t CO 2 -e y -1 .…”