Austerity and Political Choice in Britain

Clarke, Harold D.; Kellner, Peter; Stewart, Marianne C.; Twyman, Joe; Whiteley, Paul

doi:10.1057/9781137524935

Cited by 25 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…This can be done using the Essex internet panel survey of 2015, which interviewed the same people before and after the election. 2 The Conservative vote share in this post-election internet survey was 35.7 per cent compared with the actual election vote share of 37.7 per cent, and the Labour vote share was 29.8 per cent compared with the actual result of 31.2 per cent. These discrepancies are all within the margin of error, indicating that a post-election internet survey can be quite accurate.…”

Section: What Went Wrong In 2015?mentioning

confidence: 66%

Why Did the Polls Get It Wrong in the 2015 General Election? Evaluating the Inquiry into Pre‐Election Polls

Whiteley¹

2016

Political Quarterly

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Section: What Went Wrong In 2015?mentioning

confidence: 66%

Why Did the Polls Get It Wrong in the 2015 General Election? Evaluating the Inquiry into Pre‐Election Polls

Whiteley¹

2016

Political Quarterly

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“…It was the same with the other two major parties: the largest significant predictor of voting for each was survey respondents' feelings about their respective leaders (Clarke et al, 2004, 113-116). This general finding also held at the 2005 (Clarke et al, 2009, 172-172), 2010 (Whiteley et al, 2013) and 2015 general elections (Clarke et al, 2016), as well as at the 2011 referendum on reform of the voting system (Whiteley et al, 2013, Chapter 7).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Feelings about party leaders as a voter's heuristic – what happens when the leaders change? A note

2019

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Recent analyses of voting at British general elections deploy a valence theory according to which electors evaluate each party's performance and policies and vote accordingly. Many voters, however, avoid at least some of the effort involved in assembling and assessing information about parties' policies and instead use heuristics such as their feelings about the party leaders as major determinants of their decisions. When party leaders are changed, therefore, differences in voters' feelings about predecessor and successor could lead to changes in party choice. That argument is tested for the 2015 and 2017 British general elections in England, between which all three largest parties changed their leader, with results entirely consistent with the argument. In addition, there were significant changes in feelings about the new party leaders during the six weeks of the 2017 campaign, and these too were linked to final voting choices in the expected directions.

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“…Certainly, some of Labour's opponents believed it (for example, senior campaign official from a political party September 14, 2015). However, it is also important to note that this reading of events is also a comforting one for a party founded as the political wing of the Labour's lack of fiscal rectitude (Clarke et al 2015). To this, in the weeks before the election, was added the message of the potential dangers of a Labour/SNP coalition, targeted at the voters who were most likely to be responsive (Conservative Party scholar July 22, 2015; senior national Liberal Democrat official, August 5, 2015).…”

Section: Data and The Institutional Contextmentioning

confidence: 98%

Data-Driven Campaigning in the 2015 United Kingdom General Election

Anstead

2017

The International Journal of Press/Politics

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While we know something of data-driven campaigning practices in the US, we know much less about the role of data in other national contexts. The 2015 UK General Election offers an important case study of how such practices are evolving and being deployed in a different setting. This article draws on 31 in-depth interviews with political practitioners involved in the use of data for six major UK parties and electoral regulators. These interviews are employed to explore the perceived importance of data in contemporary British campaigns, to understand the data-based campaign techniques being used by UK parties, and to assess how data-driven practices are interacting with the pre-existing institutional context of British politics. Going beyond the specifics of the UK case, this study raises questions about the comparative, theoretical, and normative dimensions of data-driven politics.

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Austerity and Political Choice in Britain

Cited by 25 publications

References 0 publications

Why Did the Polls Get It Wrong in the 2015 General Election? Evaluating the Inquiry into Pre‐Election Polls

Why Did the Polls Get It Wrong in the 2015 General Election? Evaluating the Inquiry into Pre‐Election Polls

Feelings about party leaders as a voter's heuristic – what happens when the leaders change? A note

Data-Driven Campaigning in the 2015 United Kingdom General Election

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