Attribution of Decadal-Scale Lake-Level Trends in the Michigan-Huron System

Hanrahan, Janel; Roebber, Paul J.; Kravtsov, Sergey

doi:10.3390/w6082278

Cited by 20 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The water level of lakes and unconfined aquifers in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes region has been dominated by a near-decadal oscillation for at least 75 years. − Several lines of evidence point to climate forcing as the cause of the oscillation. Correlations with geopotential height (500 hPa) and sea level pressure suggest that it is connected to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns originating in the midlatitude Pacific that support the flux of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-Decadal Oscillation of Water Levels and Mercury Bioaccumulation in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region

Watras

Teng

Latzka

et al. 2020

Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett.

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Mercury (Hg) contamination in remote lakes stems from atmospheric Hg transport to surface waters and subsequent conversion by microbes to neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) that biomagnifies in pelagic food webs. Despite declines in anthropogenic Hg emissions and downward trends for Hg in precipitation, many fisheries remain contaminated in otherwise pristine regions. Here, we report that trends in bioaccumulation are confounded by a near-decadal oscillation of the water cycle that is connected to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In hundreds of lakes within the upper Laurentian Great Lakes region, mercury levels in pelagic fish and piscivorous birds oscillate in phase with near-decadal changes in water level, independent of atmospheric Hg loading. Geochemical data suggest that the cause is variation in the microbial production of MeHg as littoral sediments dry out and reflood. A recently amplified oscillation of the water cycle points to more intense episodes of fish contamination as the climate warms, further obscuring the benefit of reduced Hg emissions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-Decadal Oscillation of Water Levels and Mercury Bioaccumulation in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region

Watras

Teng

Latzka

et al. 2020

Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett.

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“…A substantial body of work has sought to identify anomalies in the water balance components-overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, and runoff-that contribute to interannual fluctuation in lake levels, as well as the circulation anomalies driving these fluctuations (Assel, 1998;Assel et al, 2004;Biron et al, 2014;Ghanbari & Bravo, 2008;Gronewold et al, 2016;Hanrahan et al, 2010Hanrahan et al, , 2014Polderman & Pryor, 2004;Van Cleave et al, 2014). The polar jet stream, which is influenced by a variety of larger-scale teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, has been identified as a dominant forcing of wintertime climatic variability in the Great Lakes region (Assel, 1998;Assel & Rodionov, 1998;Bai et al, 2012Bai et al, , 2015Gronewold et al, 2015;Rodionov, 1997;Rodionov & Assel, 2000Rodionov et al, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroclimatological Drivers of Extreme Floods on Lake Ontario

Carter

2018

Water Resources Research

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This study examines the hydrologic and climatic conditions that precede major flood events on Lake Ontario, with the purpose of understanding the potential for seasonal forecasts to inform lake level management. Seven late spring/early summer flood events are identified since 1949, including the record‐breaking flood of 2017. The surface climate, atmospheric circulation, and antecedent lake levels for the preceding winter and spring seasons are examined. Results suggest that flood events are caused by different combinations of high, initial wintertime water levels across all of the Great Lakes, anomalously wet winters across the entire Great Lakes basin, and wet spring conditions, particularly in the eastern part of the basin. Wet winters that precede flood events are often associated with La Niña conditions, while wet springs are often associated with a westward shift of the North Atlantic Subtropical High. As the critical drawdown period for Lake Ontario occurs in the fall, before the onset of anomalous winter or spring/summer inputs, a generalized additive model was used to predict April–August maximum monthly average Lake Ontario water levels using November levels for all Great Lakes, a nonlinear response to the wintertime Niño 3.4 index, and scenarios of April–May overbasin precipitation. The Niño 3.4 index significantly improves lake level predictions, suggesting that an El Niño‐Southern Oscillation signal may be useful for lake level management. Future work needed to verify the use of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation for Lake Ontario flood forecasting and to link the North Atlantic Subtropical High to predictions of springtime Great Lakes climate is discussed.

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“…• the variability of hydroclimate variables (water levels, temperature, precipitation, evaporation, etc.) at different time scales (hourly, daily, seasonal, annual and secular) as it relates to natural and human factors [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between Water Levels in the North American Great Lakes and Climate Indices

Assani¹,

Azouaoui²,

Pothier-Champagne³

et al. 2016

Lake Sciences and Climate Change

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The goal of this study is to look at how the interconnection of five North American Great Lakes affects the relationship between climate indices and mean annual and extreme daily water levels during the period from 1918 to 2012, and how human activity impacts the dependence between these two variables. Analysis of correlation revealed the existence of a negative correlation between water levels in Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron and Erie, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) climate index, although this correlation is not observed at the daily scale for Lake Superior. Water levels in Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The temporal evolution of the dependence between water levels and climate indices is characterized by breaks interpreted to result from variations in the amount of precipitation probably linked with an AMO phase change in the Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie watersheds. In the case of Lake Ontario, such breaks in dependence are thought to be related to water level regulation in this lake resulting from the digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway.

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Attribution of Decadal-Scale Lake-Level Trends in the Michigan-Huron System

Cited by 20 publications

References 48 publications

Near-Decadal Oscillation of Water Levels and Mercury Bioaccumulation in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region

Near-Decadal Oscillation of Water Levels and Mercury Bioaccumulation in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region

Hydroclimatological Drivers of Extreme Floods on Lake Ontario

Relationship between Water Levels in the North American Great Lakes and Climate Indices

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