Attribution and Sensitivity Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin is a typical arid and semi-arid area, which is very sensitive to climate change. In recent years, it has become the area with the greatest shortage of water resources in China. In this study, a new two-way coupling model of land surface and hydrology has been explored to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff. It is of great theoretical and practical significance for making better management countermeasures and strategies to cope with climate change in the Yellow River Basin. The results showed that: (1) the annual average precipitation in the basin was 470.1 mm, which was higher in the lower reaches than in the middle and upper reaches. The annual average temperature is 5.8 °C. The entire basin showed a remarkable warming speed. The annual average pan evaporation is 1067.3 mm showing a downward trend throughout the basin; (2) from 1987 to 2009, the contribution rate of climate change to runoff change has not fluctuated by more than 5%. Since 2010, the precipitation caused by climate factors has increased runoff by 12~15%. The impact of land use change on runoff has been increasing annually. The influence of projects on runoff change was the leading factor of runoff reduction in the Yellow River Basin, with the contribution rate around 50%; and (3) for every 10% decrease in precipitation, the runoff decreases by 13~15.7%. When the temperature rises by 1.0 °C, the runoff decreases by 2.1~4.2%. The runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River was most sensitive to precipitation and temperature changes. This showed that the runoff in the plateau and mountainous areas were highly sensitive to climate change.

Climate-Driven Dynamics of Runoff in the Dayekou Basin: A Comprehensive Analysis of Temperature, Precipitation, and Anthropogenic Influences over a 25-Year Period

“…This study's findings align with the existing literature discussing the impact of climate change on hydrological processes [30] and the role of human activities in disrupting natural water systems [31]. Moreover, the specific contributions of increasing temperature and water conservancy projects to the observed changes resonate with the works of Chen et al [32], Xia et al [33], and Chang et al [34]. The annual runoff distribution in the Dayekou Basin displays a distinctive unimodal pattern, characterized by a peak from June to October, reaching its maximum value of 39.68 mm in July.…”

A Novel Forest EcoSpatial Network for Carbon Stocking Using Complex Network Theory in the Yellow River Basin

“…It spans three major topographical steps and four major geomorphic units from west to east [25]. The climate within the basin varies significantly, with the southeastern, central, and northwestern regions belonging to semi-humid, semi-arid, and arid climate zones, respectively [26]. The vegetation in the Yellow River Basin is influenced by both horizontal zonality and monsoons, spanning four vegetation zones from east to west including the deciduous broad-leaved forest zone, grassland zone, desert zone, and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau vegetation zone [27].…”

Study on the Annual Runoff Change and Its Relationship with Fractional Vegetation Cover and Climate Change in the Chinese Yellow River Basin

“…Runoff is a fundamental component of the hydrological cycle and a key element in the water balance [1]. Its patterns of variation closely reflect the natural geographical features of a region and hold significant importance for the sustainable development of flood control, irrigation, navigation, power generation, and other industries [2,3]. Various factors influence the spatial and temporal distributions of runoff, such as climate change, human activities, vegetation cover, and underlying surface conditions.…”