Attempting to measure the intensity of opposing feelings in elections: A polarization approach to Catalonia’s independence case

Abstract

This paper addresses the Catalonian political process for independence. Based on the outcome of the 2017 Catalonian Regional Election, it firstly innovates by building an independence-feeling indicator for each municipality. Subsequently, we resort to the concept of polarization to assess the level of inherent conflict. Besides, we evaluate to what extent polarization can be explained by different variables. Then, in the second part of the paper, we redo the analysis but, to handle the potential aggregation problem that arises with geographically reference data (MAUP problem), we compute for each municipality two (antiindependence-feeling and proindependence-feeling) indicators rather than one. In doing so, we avoid merging votes that offset each other and, by applying the polarization index, we not only test for (inter-) polarization but also (intra-) polarization (within municipalities). The results show important differences. More specifically, although polarization across municipalities is relatively small, there is a high level of polarization within them. Moreover, while population density, Catalan proficiency and place of birth are instrumental when explaining polarization if a single indicator is computed, in the case of two indicators unemployment rate, age and wealth also emerge as remarkable variables, while among the three previous ones the importance of population density decreases.

Hibernation of Secession Tensions in Catalonia: Attenuation Trends on Antagonistic Alignments

“…Variations in national identity across the two main citizenry segments, those with a family language of Catalan versus those with a family language of Spanish were studied first. Previous findings, either from surveys or electoral results, had long-established the priority of this ethnolinguistic cleavage rooted on family ascendancy origins (Catalonian ascendancy vs. other Spanish regions) (Barceló 2014;Álvarez-Gálvez et al 2018;Guntermann et al 2020;Maza et al 2019;Maza and Hierro 2022;Miley 2007Miley , 2013Miley and Garvía 2019;Romero-Vidal 2019). Our longitudinal results confirmed such preeminence.…”

“…The increasing affective distance between pro-secession and anti-secession advocates rested on prominent identity alignments. Finally, using the results of the 2017 regional election, Maza and Hierro (2022) found strong polarization scores inside Catalonian municipalities that rested upon voting for either pro-secession or anti-secession parties. Moreover, family language, place of birth (ascendancy) and socio-economic levels were highly predictive of polarization degrees.…”

“…To confirm such tendencies, however, changes in polarization measures will be decisive, although CEO Barometers do not include the required variables 9 . When a political conflict focuses on a nodal discrepancy such as pro-secession and anti-secession preferences, as is the case in Catalonia, the chances of digging a deep trench between two strongly antagonistic sides are very high (Balcells et al 2021;Rodríguez-Teruel and Barrio 2021;Merino 2022;Maza and Hierro 2022;Tobeña 2021), and when that happens in a context where it is easy to draw lines of friction or cleavages that run alongside ethnolinguistic ingredients or sociocultural signifiers (language, ancestry, socio-economic status), the possibilities that such entrenched sides can get stuck in positions ready for open confrontation is even higher (Horowitz 2001;Esteban et al 2012). It is good news, then, that the present findings displayed clear signals of an ongoing attenuation of both open social tensions and political divisions rooted on identity gaps.…”