Objective
There is considerable excitement about implicit alcohol associations (IAAs) as predictors of college student hazardous drinking; however, few studies have investigated IAAs prospectively, included multiple assessments, or controlled for previous drinking. Doing so is essential to show their utility as a predictor and, ultimately, target for screening or intervention. Therefore, three IAAs (drinking identity, alcohol approach, alcohol excitement) were evaluated as prospective predictors of drinking in first- and second-year US undergraduates.
Method
A sample of 506 undergraduates completed eight online assessments of IAAs, explicit measures of the IAA constructs, and hazardous drinking (consumption, problems, and risk of alcohol use disorders) every three months over a 21-month period. Retention rates, ordered by follow-up points were 90%, 76%, 76%, 77%, 72%, 67%, and 66%, respectively. Fifty percent of participants were non-drinkers at baseline; 21% were above clinical cutoffs for hazardous drinking.
Results
Drinking identity and alcohol excitement associations predicted future alcohol consumption and problems after controlling for previous drinking and explicit measures; drinking identity also predicted future risk of alcohol use disorder. Relative to the other IAAs, drinking identity predicted alcohol consumption for the longest duration (i.e., 21 months). Alcohol approach associations rarely predicted variance in drinking.
Conclusions
IAAs vary in their utility as prospective predictors of college student hazardous drinking. Drinking identity and, to a lesser extent, alcohol excitement emerged as robust prospective predictors of hazardous drinking. Intervention and screening efforts could likely benefit from targeting those associations.