Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes

Allan, Richard P.; Soden, Brian J.

doi:10.1126/science.1160787

Cited by 1,247 publications

(854 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

801

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…It is expected that this intensification will have consequences on the availability of water resources and also on the intensity and frequency of occurrence of extreme events (Trenberth, 1999;Emori and Brown, 2005;Allan and Soden, 2008). These conclusions are supported by observed trends and simulations from climate models (Frei et al, 2006;Vincent and Mekis, 2006;Fowler et al, 2007;Hayhoe et al, 2007;Alexander and Arblaster, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Mailhot

Beauregard

Talbot

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Annual maxima (AM) series of precipitation from 15 simulations of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) have been analysed for gridpoints covering Canada and the northern part of United States. The NARCCAP Regional Climate Models' simulations have been classified into the following three groups based on the driving data used at the RCMs boundaries: (1) NCEP (6 simulations); (2) GCM-historical (5 simulations); and (3) GCM-future (4 simulations). Historical simulations are representative of the 1968-2000 period while future simulations cover the 2041-2070 period. A reference common grid has been defined to ease the comparison. Multi-model average intensities of AM precipitation of 6-, 12-, 24-, 72-, and 120-h for 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year return periods have been estimated for each simulation group. Comparison of results from NCEP and GCM-historical groups shows good overall agreement in terms of spatial distribution of AM intensities. Comparison of GCM-future and GCM-historical groups clearly shows widespread increases with median relative changes across all gridpoints ranging from 12 to 18% depending on durations and return periods. Fourteen Canadian climatic regions have been used to define regional projections and average regional changes in intense precipitation have been estimated for each duration and return period. Uncertainties on these regional values, resulting from inter-model variability, were also estimated. Results suggest that inland regions (e.g. Ontario and more specifically Southern Ontario, the Prairies, Southern Quebec) will experience the largest relative increases in AM intensities while coastal regions (e.g. Atlantic Provinces and the West Coast) will experience the smallest ones. These projections are most valuable inputs for the assessment of future impact of climate change on water infrastructures and the development of more efficient adaptation strategies.

show abstract

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Mailhot

Beauregard

Talbot

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…in summer as highlighted by previous theoretical and application studies (Pall et al, 2007;Allan and Soden, 2008;Scoccimarro et al, 2013). According to the CC Equation, an increase in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere of approximately 7% per degree temperature rise is expected.…”

Section: Equation] To Changes In Precipitation Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes in Romania and associated large‐scale mechanisms

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT:The simultaneous variability of several climate extremes in Romania on the one hand and the understanding of the large-scale mechanisms responsible for this variability on the other are examined. Ten indices associated with temperature and precipitation extremes computed at high spatial resolution for the period 1961-2010 are analysed. Significant increasing trends for the temperature extremes are detected in all seasons, except for autumn, with the highest increasing rate in summer and the lowest in spring. Regarding precipitation extremes, significant increasing trends over large areas in the frequency of very wet days and maximum daily amount during autumn and in the maximum duration of dry spells during summer are the only ones detected.The large-scale mechanisms responsible for these characteristics of variability, especially the simultaneous variability of several climate extremes, are identified through the canonical correlation analysis applied to a combination of various large-scale predictors and to combined climate extremes.In winter, it was found that the thermodynamic factor (represented by air temperature anomalies at 850 hPa) mainly controls the trends of temperature extremes in Romania, whereas the dynamic one (represented by the sea level pressure anomalies) controls the pattern of trend magnitude. Regarding precipitation extremes, the role of the two factors is reversed. The Carpathians' influence is noted for this season. In summertime, the thermodynamic factor is dominant for both temperature and precipitation extremes analysed in this article. For temperature extremes, the T850 alone could explain their variability characteristics, whereas for precipitation extremes (frequency and duration) the SH700 has the dominant role, except for the maximum duration of dry intervals, which is controlled by a combination of T850 and SH700 anomalies. The connections found in this study are strong and explain a great part of the total observed variance, showing that these results can be used in a future study to build skilful statistical downscaling models, simultaneously for several seasonal climate extremes, giving the results more physical coherence.

show abstract

“…9) shows qualitative agreement of daily mean temperature at the same elevation from July to October. Allan and Soden (2008) found the observed amplification of rainfall extremes to be larger than that projected by models, and noted that projections of future changes of such extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated. Here, to estimate monthly NHRCM-5 km output for July to October mean precipitation, we selected Fig.…”

Section: Gis Statistics Modulesmentioning

confidence: 98%

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to adaptation to regional climate change: a case study of Okutama-machi, Tokyo, Japan

Bai

Kaneko

Kobayashi

et al. 2013

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recently, local governments have an increasing need to take extensive and effective local measures to adapt to regional climate change, but have difficulty knowing how and when to adapt to such change. This study aims: 1) to characterize an efficient and cost-effective database management tool (DMT) for developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to using observed and projected data, for decision-making by non-expert government authorities, and 2) to document how DMT can be used to provide specialized yet understandable climate change information to assist local decision-makers in clarifying regional priorities within a Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2014) wide array of adaptation options. The DMT combines climate change mapping, statistical GIS, and a vulnerability assessment. Okutama-machi, a 225.63 km 2 sparsely populated mountainous region (2012 population 5,856) northwest of Tokyo, Japan, was chosen for this pilot study. In this paper, the most recent regional climate projections (5 km resolution) are transcribed into an understandable form for use by non-expert citizens who use the GIS-based DMT. Results illustrate qualitative agreement in projection of summer daily mean temperatures; the mean temperature increase at Okutama-machi is the greatest of any area in Tokyo. In comparing near future and future conditions, August monthly mean temperature will increase more than 0.7-0.9°C and 2.8-2.9°C, and monthly precipitation by 50 % and 25-41 %, respectively. However, the root mean square (RMS) errors and bias of percentage change for monthly precipitation in summertime are 26.8 % and 4.3 %, respectively. These data provide an early warning and have implications for local climate policy response.

show abstract

Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes

Cited by 1,247 publications

References 28 publications

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes in Romania and associated large‐scale mechanisms

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to adaptation to regional climate change: a case study of Okutama-machi, Tokyo, Japan

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About