Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States

Corringham, Thomas W.; Ralph, F. Martin; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, D. R.; Talbot, Cary A.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax4631

Cited by 134 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(56 reference statements)

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“…Information from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims and losses, available for the period 1978–2017, are used to identify historical California floods with substantial economic loss. We define the most damaging floods as events with insured losses in excess of $10 million as provided in Corringham et al (2019). In this study, we focus on floods affecting Northern California.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Four Atmospheric Circulation Regimes Over the North Pacific and Their Relationship to California Precipitation on Daily to Seasonal Timescales

Guirguis

Gershunov

DeFlorio

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Precipitation in California is highly variable and not well forecasted on subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) timescales. Understanding relationships between synoptic‐scale atmospheric circulation and hydrometeorological extremes could improve predictability. This work demonstrates the importance of four North Pacific circulation regimes (called the NP4 modes) in modulating precipitation, flooding, and water resources in California. Here we demonstrate how, on daily timescales, interactions between the NP4 modes drive coastal flow that can result in dry conditions from atmospheric ridging or wet conditions associated with enhanced onshore flow and atmospheric river (AR) landfalls. Seasonally, the prevalence of certain NP4 phase relationships can tip the scale toward wet or dry conditions. Relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NP4 are explored, and we provide insight into the poorly forecasted Western US seasonal precipitation during the “Godzilla” El Niño winter of 2016 by examining climate‐weather linkages in a historical context.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Four Atmospheric Circulation Regimes Over the North Pacific and Their Relationship to California Precipitation on Daily to Seasonal Timescales

Guirguis

Gershunov

DeFlorio

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…An emerging area of research focuses on the intersection between the physical and human-related impacts associated with ARs. In the US West Coast, for example, flood damages linked to even a small increase in AR intensity can translate to large economic losses 152 . The interrelation between human activities, such as expansion of human development 153 and modification of surface processes, means that new approaches are needed to communicate AR impacts.…”

Section: Summary and Future Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change

Payne

Demory

Leung

et al. 2020

Nat Rev Earth Environ

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are synoptic-scale features characterized by their striking geometry-extending thousands of kilometres in length and an order of magni tude less in width 1-and vertically coherent low-level moisture transport concentrated in the bottom 3 km of the atmosphere 2 (Fig. 1). In total, ARs are estimated to accomplish as much as 90% of poleward moisture transport 3,4 , which, in the North Pacific, averages 700 kg m −1 s −1 (Fig. 1b), more than twice the mean annual discharge found at the mouth of the Amazon River 5. ARs do not describe continuous moisture transport. Rather, they are continually evolving pathways that incorporate moisture from local convergence and evaporation along their track 6,7 or, in select cases, from distant source regions in the tropics or subtropics 8-12. Owing to the complexity of their evolution, our baseline knowledge of AR characteristics at the global scale is uncertain due to the dependency on identification algorithms (Box 1), with factors such as genesis, development and termination only recently being explored 13,14. However, ARs are known to operate as one part of a larger, synoptic-scale dynamical system driving the poleward transport of sensible and latent heat 4,15. They are generally found in the vicinity of extratropical cyclones. Over the North Pacific, for example, 85% of ARs are paired with extratropical cyclones 16 , consistent with their observed relationship with baroclinic instabilities and the mid-latitude storm track 3,6. However, this relationship is nuanced; only 45% of extratropical cyclones over the same region are associated with an AR 16. Similar non-linear relationships are observed in the North Atlantic, where the evolution and life cycle of a single AR can span that of several cyclones 9. While the phenomena are clearly related, their relationship is interactive, with potential implications on the inten sification of storms and the severity of precipitation impacts on land 17,18. Indeed, given their intense moisture transport and moist-neutrality, ARs exhibit conditions that are ideal for forced precipitation, either through interaction with topography or ascent along a warm conveyor belt or frontal boundary 19. Thus, when ARs make landfall, they can have a range of hydrological impacts, including precipitation extremes and related hazards,

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“…Additionally, it has been shown that the lack of ARs is often correlated with drought periods (e.g., 6 ) . Their importance in extreme precipitation events and floods has been analyzed in some detail, mostly for the Western U.S., where ARs are the primary driver of damage caused by flooding 7 , and also in western Europe, where intense rainfall is strongly associated with ARs, their persistence being especially relevant as the precursors of winter floods 8 – 11 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant increase of global anomalous moisture uptake feeding landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

et al. 2020

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One of the most robust signals of climate change is the relentless rise in global mean surface temperature, which is linked closely with the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere. A more humid atmosphere will lead to enhanced moisture transport due to, among other factors, an intensification of atmospheric rivers (ARs) activity, which are an important mechanism of moisture advection from subtropical to extra-tropical regions. Here we show an enhanced evapotranspiration rates in association with landfalling atmospheric river events. These anomalous moisture uptake (AMU) locations are identified on a global scale. The interannual variability of AMU displays a significant increase over the period 1980-2017, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling, at 7 % per degree of surface temperature rise. These findings are consistent with an intensification of AR predicted by future projections. Our results also reveal generalized significant increases in AMU at the regional scale and an asymmetric supply of oceanic moisture, in which the maximum values are located over the region known as the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) centred on the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

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Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States

Cited by 134 publications

References 35 publications

Four Atmospheric Circulation Regimes Over the North Pacific and Their Relationship to California Precipitation on Daily to Seasonal Timescales

Four Atmospheric Circulation Regimes Over the North Pacific and Their Relationship to California Precipitation on Daily to Seasonal Timescales

Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change

Significant increase of global anomalous moisture uptake feeding landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

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