Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss

Petrie, Ruth; Shaffrey, Len; Sutton, Rowan

doi:10.1002/qj.2502

Cited by 53 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…The remote importance of the Labrador area on the atmospheric intra-seasonal circulation was noticed also in other studies (e.g. Petrie et al 2015), the analysis here indicating its extended potential in leading remote process at yearly time-scale.…”

Section: Leading the Nao In Reanalysis Datasupporting

confidence: 87%

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

et al. 2017

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Section: Leading the Nao In Reanalysis Datasupporting

confidence: 87%

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

et al. 2017

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“…However, a growing number of studies suggests that these mechanisms alone are not sufficiently explanatory, and more complex mechanisms may be involved as well in some (or many) of the recent strong or even unprecedented extremes16171819. Explanations include changes in soil-moisture1718, changing tropical Pacific sea surface temperature2021, and the potential impact of rapid Arctic warming1922232425.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

Mann

Rahmstorf

Kornhuber

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

273

226

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Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

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“…Several studies have concluded that the Arctic amplification is resulting in increased meridionality and persistence in upper-level flow patterns that result in greater variance of surface weather conditions [2,9,43,44]. Similarly, Wu et al (p. 5523 [45]) examined winter sea ice concentration (SIC) from Baffin Bay to eastern Newfoundland and found significant correlations between winter SIC anomalies and 500-hPa anomalies during the subsequent summer that acted as a "possible precursor for summer atmospheric circulation and rainfall anomalies over northern Eurasia".…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Petrie et al [44] found linkages between decreasing ASIE and amplified upper-level flow during summer (JJA), and Gedalof et al (p. 159 [46]) identified a linkage between 500-hPa blocking events in summer and large increases in wildfire activity in the northwestern U.S., noting that upstream ridging "would divert storm tracks out of the region and reduce relative humidity." Soil moisture variability in the western U.S. also may express a memory component as average winter (DJF) temperatures are linked to soil moisture conditions in the following spring [47] or summer.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Linkages between Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Increasing Wildfire Activity in the Western United States

Knapp

Soulé

2017

Forests

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Abstract:We examined relationships between monthly Arctic sea-ice extent (ASIE) and annual wildfire activity for seven regions in the western United States during 1980-2015 to determine if spatio-temporal linkages exist between ASIE, upper-level flow, and surface climatic conditions conducive to western U.S. wildfire activity. Winter ASIE had significant (p < 0.05) negative relationships with annual wildfire area burned (r s = −0.391 − −0.683), with the strongest relationship occurring in the Northern Rockies. We explored spatial linkages between ASIE and 300-hPa flow (+), temperature (+), precipitation (−), and soil moisture (+) using monthly values of ASIE and gridded values for the climatic parameters. Relationships were best expressed between January ASIE and conditions in the current-year July over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Reduced wintertime ASIE is teleconnected with increased ridging in summertime 300-hPa flow over the western U.S., resulting in warmer and drier conditions during peak fire season. Our findings suggest that reductions in ASIE are one of the driving forces behind the increasing annual trend (>36,000 ha) in area burned in the western U.S. since 1980.

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Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss

Cited by 53 publications

References 40 publications

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

Spatio-Temporal Linkages between Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Increasing Wildfire Activity in the Western United States

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