Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Variability in the Arabian/Persian Gulf

Abstract

The Arabian Gulf comprises one of the world's most unique and fragile marine ecosystems; it is susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change due to its shallow depth and its location within an arid region that witnesses frequent severe atmospheric events. To reproduce these effects in numerical models, it is important to obtain a better understanding of the region's sea surface temperature (SST) variability patterns, as SST is a major driver of circulation in shallow environments. To this end, here, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition analysis was conducted to investigate interannual to multi-decadal SST variability in the Gulf from 1982 to 2020, using daily Level 4 Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) data. In this way, three dominant EOF modes were identified to contribute the Gulf's SST variability. Significant spatial and temporal correlations were found suggesting that throughout the 39-year study period, SST variability could be attributed to atmospheric changes driven by the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate modes. Spatial and temporal analyses of the dataset revealed that the average SST was 26.7°C, and that the warming rate from 1982 to 2020 reached up to 0.59°C/decade. A detailed examination of SST changes associated with heat exchange at the air-sea interface was conducted using surface heat fluxes from fifth generation (ERA5) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Despite the SST warming trend, the accumulation of heat during the study period is suggesting that there was an overall loss of heat (cooling). This cooling reverted into heating in 2003 and has since been increasing.

Responses of Satellite Chlorophyll-a to the Extreme Sea Surface Temperatures over the Arabian and Omani Gulf

“…The temporal SST trends between 1982 to 2020 were about 0.44 ± 0.06 • C/decade and 0.32 ± 0.04 • C/decade for AG and OG, respectively (Figure 3a,b). This result is in good agreement with [33], who found that the average SST trend was about 0.41 ± 0.14 • C/decade in the AG during the same period .…”

“…The lowest MHW frequencies in both gulfs are observed from 1982 to 1992 and from 2012 to 2014 with less than one event/year. These years are considered cold years (see Figure 4a,b), with the lowest SSTA variability as already noted by [33]. We also found an interesting MHW frequency peak (~7 events/year) at AG in 2010.…”

“…Numerous studies around the world have examined the factors that influence individual MHW events. For example, a combination of local oceanic and large-scale atmospheric influences was proposed as the cause of the 2010/2011 marine heat wave off the coast of Western Australia, which caused catastrophic In the satellite era, extensive research has been conducted to study the SST [33,[43][44][45][46] and chlorophyll-a concentration [47][48][49] in AG and OG. For example, Ref.…”

“…Recently, Ref. [33] found that the SST trend in AG from 1982-2020 was about 0.41 ± 0.14 °C/decade. Recently, there have been some attempts to study MHWs in the Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Gulf [27,28].…”

Impacts of Climate Change on Seawater Temperature and Total Dissolved Solids: Challenges and Sustainable Solutions for Reverse Osmosis Desalination in the Arabian Gulf Region

“…The seawater in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia exposed to high rate of changes due to the expansion of industrial growth and increase in human infrastructure with other activities. In addition to global increase in atmospheric temperature, the Arabian gulf considered a shallow water body, average depth of 36 meter, which makes the consequence of changes in temperature patterns noticeable and more significant [4] [5].…”