Atlantic Warming Since the Little Ice Age

Gebbie, Geoffrey

doi:10.5670/oceanog.2019.151

Cited by 4 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 57 publications

(63 reference statements)

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“…Those findings are compatible with the reconstruction of the Atlantic Ocean by Gebbie et al (their Fig. 5) 15 suggesting that 53% (19%) of the warming since 1850 occurred below 700 (2000) m, but not with the lower contributions of the deep ocean of Zanna et al 16 (23% and 4%, their Fig. 1; note that Zanna et al 16 neither considered the Nordic Seas as a source region nor the SSTs before 1854).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Furthermore, the noticeable cooling-to-warming sequence between 1940 and 1990 is also seen in EN4 and IAP. For the 2000-4000 m layer, our reconstruction shows steep warming between 1945 and 1980, also seen in Gebbie et al 15 (their Fig. 3) and hinted by Bagnell and DeVries 17 .…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

“…3) and hinted by Bagnell and DeVries 17 . Below 4000 m, EN4 does not reproduce the 1945-1980 warming seen in our reconstructions, in Bagnell and DeVries 17 and Gebbie et al 15 (their Fig. 3).…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 64%

“…1). The spatially sparse depth and temperature measurements from the 1870s are taken from Gebbie 15 . Temperature, salinity and pressure data were collected for the seven A05 hydrography surveys.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the deep ocean, ΔOHC estimates have mostly relied on decadal hydrographic surveys whose sparse observational coverage 9,11,13 makes estimates of the deep variability uncertain, particularly in the North Atlantic 14 . Historical reconstructions of ocean temperatures with the improved deep-sea resolution, such as those provided by recent studies [15][16][17] and the present work, are therefore essential for a full account of ocean heat uptake. Long-term and well-resolved time series are also an asset to help disentangle long-term warming due to anthropogenic forcing of the climate system from regional deviation of ocean heat content trends 18 due to internal variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 19 or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 20 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 95%

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The redistribution of anthropogenic excess heat is a key driver of warming in the North Atlantic

Messias

Mercier

2022

Commun Earth Environ

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Understanding ocean excess heat uptake is crucial for assessing climate warming, yet uncertainties remain about its history and redistribution. Here, we reconstruct ocean heat content change along the 25°N Atlantic hydrographic section and assess its spatiotemporal origin and fate. We show that the delayed response of the ocean below 700 m to sea surface temperature change contribute to 62% of full depth warming at this latitude for 1850–2018, falling to 35% for 1975–2018 when anthropogenic warming in the upper ocean accelerated. The regional climate fluctuations shape ocean heat content variability at 25°N with contributions from the Labrador Sea producing most of the decadal variability and the Nordic Seas bound to become the main contributor to deep ocean warming in the coming decades. Chiefly, the net excess heat transport across 25°N has increased recently, warming the domain north of 25°N at a rate of 0.89 ± 0.19 W m−2 during 2012–2018, revealing that excess heat redistribution is a key driver of North Atlantic heat gain.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 64%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 95%

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The redistribution of anthropogenic excess heat is a key driver of warming in the North Atlantic

Messias

Mercier

2022

Commun Earth Environ

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Weakening of the Gulf Stream at Florida Straits over the past century inferred from coastal sea-level data

Piecuch

2020

Preprint

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A major midlatitude hurricane in the Little Ice Age

Dickie,

Wach

2024

Clim. Past

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Abstract. An unusually severe hurricane (Louisbourg Storm) struck Nova Scotia, Canada, in 1757. Historic records describing storm conditions as well as damage to ships and coastal fortifications indicate an intensity beyond any modern (post-1851) Atlantic cyclones striking the same region, yet this storm struck during a cold climate period known as the Little Ice Age (LIA). Its track and timing coincided with a British naval blockade of a French fleet at Fortress Louisbourg during the Seven Years' War (1756–1763). This provides a unique opportunity to explore growing scientific evidence of heightened storminess in the North Atlantic despite a colder climate expected to suppress hurricane intensification but which research is increasingly showing to have supported North Atlantic storms of exceptional strength. Weather attributes extracted from the logs of naval vessels scattered by the Louisbourg Storm provided multiple hourly observations recorded at different locations. Wave height and wind force estimates at ship locations were compared to extreme storm surge heights calculated for Louisbourg Harbour and a shipwreck site south of Fortress Louisbourg. Comparing these metrics to those of modern analogues that crossed the same bathymetry reflects landfall intensity consistent with a powerful major hurricane. Historical records show this storm originated as a tropical cyclone at the height of hurricane season and intensified into the northern midlatitudes along the Gulf Stream. Its intensity at landfall is consistent with established seasonal climatological models where highly baroclinic westerlies driven by autumn continental cooling encounter intensifying north-tracking tropical cyclones fuelled by sea surface temperatures that peak in autumn. Stronger seasonal contrasts from earlier and colder continental westerlies in the Little Ice Age (LIA) may have triggered explosive extratropical transition from a large hurricane resulting in a more severe strike. It suggests that tropical cyclones lasting days to weeks and the conditions that generate them are likely masked by cooler historic mean annual to multi-decadal LIA climate reconstructions.

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Atlantic Warming Since the Little Ice Age

Cited by 4 publications

References 57 publications

The redistribution of anthropogenic excess heat is a key driver of warming in the North Atlantic

The redistribution of anthropogenic excess heat is a key driver of warming in the North Atlantic

Weakening of the Gulf Stream at Florida Straits over the past century inferred from coastal sea-level data

A major midlatitude hurricane in the Little Ice Age

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