At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands

Abstract

The intensity of cyclones in the Pacific is predicted to increase and sea levels are predicted to rise, so an atoll nation like Tuvalu can serve as the 'canary in the coal mine' pointing to the new risks that are emerging because of climatic change. Based on a household survey we conducted in Tuvalu, we quantify the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Pam (March 2015) on households, and the determinants of these impacts in terms of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and responsiveness. Households experienced significant damage due to the storm surge caused by the cyclone, even though the cyclone itself passed very far away (about a 1000 km from the islands). This risk of distant cyclones has been overlooked in the literature, and ignoring it leads to significant under-estimation of the disaster risk facing lowlying atoll islands. Lastly, we constructed hypothetical policy scenarios, and calculated the estimated loss and damage they would have been associated with -a first step in building careful assessments of the feasibility of various disaster risk reduction policies.

Rethinking the role of sovereign wealth funds in small island developing states: evidence from Tuvalu and Kiribati

“…Interestingly, the intended formation of the Pacific Islands Climate Change Insurance Facility (PICCIF) has become a popular topic in discourse within the Pacific region . In reality, insurance is not a practical instrument for disaster response and recovery for very small PICs such as Tuvalu given their very small size (Taupo and Noy ) . Kiribati has an operating Insurance Corporation but it does not cover the sovereign risk and insurance penetration is comparatively low…”

Sustainable financing for climate and disaster resilience in Atoll Islands: Evidence from Tuvalu and Kiribati

“…Finally, to characterize the uncertainty of disaster costs, we accounted risks of a large‐scale disaster in the near future that could sharply drain the fund. Based on Taupo and Noy (), IMF (), World Bank (), Hallegate (), World Bank (), Noy () and Strobl (), we estimated potential large‐scale disaster shocks to be of the value equivalent to 15% of GDP with a 1 in 25 year scenario. Therefore, we factored the expected large‐scale disaster into the AAL, reflecting an increase in overall expected AAL to A$1 348 786 and A$2 993 242 for Tuvalu and Kiribati, respectively.…”

“…They only accounted for nearby cyclones in their models. Taupo and Noy () quantified the impacts of a distant cyclone (TC Pam) which passed approximately 1000 km away from Tuvalu. We accounted for distant cyclones by using the estimated cost of damages from TC Pam, for instance, and the loss and damages for Tuvalu at 10% of GDP based on both the ADB () and Taupo and Noy () .…”

“…Taupo and Noy () quantified the impacts of a distant cyclone (TC Pam) which passed approximately 1000 km away from Tuvalu. We accounted for distant cyclones by using the estimated cost of damages from TC Pam, for instance, and the loss and damages for Tuvalu at 10% of GDP based on both the ADB () and Taupo and Noy () . Even Kiribati, which was much further away from TC Pam's path than Tuvalu, was severely affected, with damages estimated by the IMF () at around 4% of GDP .…”

“…cyclones and droughts), the smallness of the islands and distances between them, and resultant communication and transportation difficulties, are major issues impeding swift response and recovery efforts. For example, both Tuvalu and Kiribati were significantly affected by Tropical Cyclone Pam (TC Pam) in 2015 even though the islands were a great distance away from the cyclone path (see Edmonds & Noy, ; Taupo & Noy, ). The fiscal response to such catastrophes as the 2015 TC Pam has further demonstrated Tuvalu's dependency on aid donors.…”