Asymmetrical Shift Toward Longer Dry Spells Associated with Warming Temperatures During Russian Summers

Ye, Hengchun; Fetzer, Eric J.

doi:10.1029/2019gl084748

Cited by 23 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Nonetheless, there are conflicting opinions regarding whether the observed warming is inducing an increase in the length of dry spells, as noted by Ye and Fetzer (2019) in Russia, or whether, as observed by Trenberth et al, (2014), the warming does not prolong the dry event, but that the warming itself may augment the intensity of the episode due to the effect of thermal magnitude. The authors consider that the observed warming has not caused longer-lasting droughts in the area of the Pyrenees, which does not correspond with the findings of Ye and Fetzer (2019). Furthermore, even under an intermediate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), there is no evidence of increasingly longer dry spells, despite a significant rise in temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comment on nhess-2021-5

2021

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Impacts upon vulnerable areas such as mountain ranges may become greater under a future scenario of adverse climatic conditions. In this sense, the concurrence of long dry spells and extremely hot temperatures can induce environmental risks such as wildfires, crop yield losses or other problems, the consequences of which could be much more serious than if these events were to occur separately in time (e.g. only long dry spells). The present study attempts to address recent and future changes in the following dimensions: duration (D), magnitude (M) and extreme magnitude (EM) of compound Dry-Hot events in the Pyrenees. The analysis focuses upon changes in the extremely long dry spells and extremely high temperatures that occur within these dry periods, in order to estimate whether the internal structure of the compound event underwent a change in the observed period and whether it will change in the future (2011-2100) under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. To this end, we quantified the changes in the temporal trends of such events, as well as changes in the bivariate probability density functions for the main Pyrenean regions. The results showed that to date the risk of the compound event has increased by only one dimension -magnitude (including extreme magnitude)during the last few decades. In relation to the future, increased in risk was found to be associated with an increase both in the magnitude and the duration (extremely long dry spells) of the compound event, mainly in the eastern and southern regions of the Pyrenees. IntroductionResearch on dry spells or droughts, as well as extreme heat events (i.e. heat waves) is habitually based upon an individual focus, and the compound nature of such events is often neglected. In this sense, in the case of spells (whether dry or wet), several studies have examined the duration thereof and have quantified the trends of such events in different regions of the world Zolina et al., 2013;Singh et al., 2014); however, the thermal component of these episodes has not been addressed therein. Similarly, we found different studies on temperature extremes that did not evaluate the effect of duration of such extremes (Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq 2010;Fonseca et al., 2016;Salameh et al., 2019). In general terms, the indices proposed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) do not involve analyzing events in a composite manner, a shortcoming that can result in underestimation of risk (Zscheischler et al., 2018).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comment on nhess-2021-5

2021

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“…Since the presence of monotonic trend in the time series infers a "Shifted Mean" condition (i.e., an increase in the probability distribution) (Ye and Fetzer 2019), if the trend in the time series is found to be significant, then the location parameter of the GEV distribution, µ is modelled assuming a linear function of time (Katz 2013;Cheng et al 2014), while scale and shape parameters are assumed to be time-invariant.…”

Section: Modelling Of Compound Heat Stress-dry Spell Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplified Risk of Compound Heat Stress-Dry Spells in Urban India

Ganguli

2021

Preprint

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Compound warm-dry spells over land, which is expected to occur more frequently and expected to cover a much larger spatial extent in a warming climate, result from the simultaneous or successive occurrence of extreme heatwaves, low precipitation, and synoptic conditions, e.g., low surface wind speeds. While changing patterns of weather and climate extremes cannot be ameliorated, effective mitigation requires an understanding of the multivariate nature of interacting drivers that influence the occurrence frequency and predictability of these extremes. However, risk assessments are often focused on univariate statistics, incorporating either extreme temperature or low precipitation; or at the most bivariate statistics considering concurrence of temperature versus precipitation, without accounting for synoptic conditions influencing their joint dependency. Based on station-based daily meteorological records from 23 urban and peri-urban locations of India, covering the 1970-2018 period, this study identifies four distinct regions that show temporal clustering of the timing of heatwaves. Further, combining joint probability distributions of interacting drivers, this analysis explored compound warm-dry potentials that result from the co-occurrence of warmer temperature, scarcer precipitation, and synoptic wind patterns. The results reveal a 50-year severe heat stress tends to be more frequent and is expected to become 5 to 17-year events at each location. Notably, considering dependence among drivers, a median 6-fold amplification (ranging from 3 to 10-fold) in compound warm-dry spell frequency is apparent relative to the expected annual number of a local 50-year severe heatwave episode, indicating warming-induced desiccation is already underway over most of the urbanized areas of the country.

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“…The length of dry periods can directly reflect the degree of drought and is often used to assess drought conditions (Ye and Fetzer, 2019; Zhang et al ., 2019a). A long dry period leads to insufficient precipitation and causes serious drought, which has adverse effects on agricultural production, vegetation growth, and human society (Huth et al ., 2000; Tao et al ., 2009; Zhang et al ., 2015; Ye, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of spring consecutive dry days with different durations across China based on the objective zoning approach

Zeng

Sun

2021

Atmospheric Science Letters

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The duration of dry periods is closely related to drought conditions and is used to evaluate the degree of drought. In this article, using the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) and K‐medoids clustering methods and considering the spatial continuity, 500 stations in China are divided into 10 clusters to analyze the variation characteristics of consecutive dry days (CDDs) with different durations in spring. In Clusters 1–5 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China, North China, and eastern and western Southwest China, the contribution percentage of short‐duration CDDs to total dry days decreases, while that of medium‐ and/or long‐duration CDDs increases, which leads to an increase in the total dry days and the duration of CDDs. In Clusters 6–8, the total dry days decrease, which are mainly contributed by the decreases in medium‐duration CDDs (for Cluster 6 over southern Northeast China) or long‐duration CDDs (for Clusters 7–8 over northern Northeast China and southern Xinjiang). The total dry days change little in Clusters 9–10 over eastern Northwest China and northern Xinjiang, which is attributed to the offset among the changes in the three‐type duration CDDs. In Clusters 6–10, the duration of CDDs shortens overall. The decadal changes of spring dry days in China exhibit remarkable regional differences. The total day days and three‐type duration CDDs in some clusters (1, 4, and 8) all have significant decadal changes, but they have not in Cluster 7. And the decadal change times also exhibit regional differences. The investigation of different‐duration CDDs in this study provides more information on droughts at different time scales in China.

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Asymmetrical Shift Toward Longer Dry Spells Associated with Warming Temperatures During Russian Summers

Cited by 23 publications

References 44 publications

Comment on nhess-2021-5

Comment on nhess-2021-5

Amplified Risk of Compound Heat Stress-Dry Spells in Urban India

Characteristics of spring consecutive dry days with different durations across China based on the objective zoning approach

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