Asymmetric impact of climatic parameters on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model
Yongbin Wang,
Ziyue Liang,
Siyu Qing
et al.
Abstract:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) poses a major threat in Shandong. This study aimed to investigate the long- and short-term asymmetric effects of meteorological factors on HFRS and establish an early forecasting system using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models. Between 2004 and 2019, HFRS exhibited a declining trend (average annual percentage change = − 9.568%, 95% CI − 16.165 to − 2.451%) with a bimodal seasonality. A long-term asymmetric influence of aggregate … Show more
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