Asymmetric hysteresis response of mid-latitude storm tracks to CO2 removal

Hwang, Jaeyoung; Son, Seok-Woo; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Woollings, Tim; Yoon, Hyunsuk; An, Soon-Il; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Min, Seung-Ki; Kug, Jong-Seong; Shin, Jongsoo

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-01971-x

Nat. Clim. Chang.

2024

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01971-x

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Asymmetric hysteresis response of mid-latitude storm tracks to CO2 removal

Jaeyoung Hwang,

Seok-Woo Son,

Chaim I. Garfinkel

et al.

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Cited by 2 publications

References 71 publications

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Basin-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency to CO2 removal

Hwang,

Son,

Martineau

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Atmospheric blocking has been identified as one of the key elements of the extratropical atmospheric variabilities, controlling extreme weather events in mid-latitudes. Future projections indicate that Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency may decrease as CO2 concentrations increase. Here, we show that such changes may not be reversed when CO2 concentrations return to the current levels. Blocking frequency instead exhibits basin-dependent changes in response to CO2 removal. While the North Atlantic blocking frequency recovers gradually from the CO2-induced eastward shift, the North Pacific blocking frequency under the CO2 removal remains lower than its initial state. These basin-dependent blocking frequency changes result from background flow changes and their interactions with high-frequency eddies. Both high-frequency eddy and background flow changes determine North Atlantic blocking changes, whereas high-frequency eddy changes dominate the slow recovery of North Pacific blocking. Our results indicate that blocking-related extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere winter may not monotonically respond to CO2 removal.

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Basin-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency to CO2 removal

Hwang,

Son,

Martineau

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Fast reduction of Atlantic SST threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions

Yang,

Shin,

Park

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Climate change mitigation through negative CO2 emissions has been recognized as a crucial strategy to combat global warming. However, its potential effects on terrestrial productivity and agricultural activities remain uncertain. In this study, we utilized large ensemble simulations with an Earth system model of full complexity to investigate the response of Gross Primary Production (GPP) to CO2 forcings. Our findings reveal a significant asymmetry in the GPP response to CO2 ramp-up and symmetric ramp-down model experiments, especially in Europe, suggesting that GPP declines rapidly as CO2 levels decrease. Remarkably, during the CO2 removal period, the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature experienced cooling due to a delayed recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cooling led to precipitation and soil moisture deficits, resulting in a rapid reduction in GPP. This asymmetry in GPP response holds consistent across multi-model simulations. These results underscore the potential implications of delayed recovery in ocean circulation, which could unexpectedly accelerate terrestrial GPP reduction. These insights are crucial for policymakers, aiding them in projecting agricultural activity and formulating targeted GPP control policies specific to the European region.

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Asymmetric hysteresis response of mid-latitude storm tracks to CO2 removal

Cited by 2 publications

References 71 publications

Basin-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency to CO2 removal

Basin-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency to CO2 removal

Fast reduction of Atlantic SST threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions

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