Asymmetric alliances and high polarity: evaluating regional security complexes in the Middle East and Horn of Africa

Abstract

The Middle East and the Horn of Africa exist in two distinct regional security complexes (RSCs), groupings of states exhibiting intense security interdependence within a distinct region, but rarely between regions. Recent geopolitical changes and related analyses, however, point to either a subsuming or a joining of the two RSCs, potentially leading to a high degree of uncertainty in two conflict-prone regions. Given the importance of such developments, we question this theory of RSC expansion by offering a concise review of recent security interactions between the two RSCs as well as quantitatively and qualitatively measuring the material power capabilities of relevant states. Borrowing from and contributing to RSC theory, we also identify and analyse concepts and indicators such as threat perception and sub-regional alliances. Our findings demonstrate the Middle East RSC is not expanding to include that of the Horn of Africa. The two remain distinct and under internal consolidation, despite the current discourse. Rather, high polarity in the Middle East coupled with often-congruent interests in Horn of Africa states best explains the current pattern of their interaction, particularly as Middle East states pursue strategies that further their own security interests at the expense of rival states within their own RSC.

The impact of the Middle East and Gulf states' involvement on the Horn of Africa's peace and security: Applying regional security complex theory

“…Because of the security interdependence of the two RSCs, changes and consolidations (without geographical inclusion or exclusion) within these distinct RSCs are possible (Cannon & Donelli, 2019). Building on Cannon and Donelli, the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether or not the security interdependence and interactions of the Middle and Horn could result in insecurity and conflict with one another (Cannon & Donelli, 2019). This has recently become a hot topic in academic debate, and the management of these two regions' security interdependence merits further research.…”

“…In 2018, Qatar and Sudan agreed to build the largest container port on the Red Sea by the end of 2020 (Vertin, 2019). To that end, the Qatar National Bank announced a $4 billion plan to develop Sudan's port (Cannon & Donelli, 2019). The 2019 Sudan revolution, however, "disrupted Qatar's involvement in Sudan" (Mosley et al, 2021, p. 5).…”

“…RSCT serves as the theoretical framework for this paper, chosen because it allows investigation of the security interactions of regions and states within and between regions. The main concepts of the paper were borrowed primarily from Buzan and Waever (2003) and Cannon and Donelli (2019) and operationalized based on the existing literature on the topic. According to Cannon and Donelli (2019), RSCT is helpful for “the systematic study of internal conditions, relations among states within a region, relations between regions, and the interaction of regional dynamics with global powers” (p. 1).…”

“…Considering the Middle East and HoA's security interdependence, state security interactions within or between these two regions are marked by a high degree of amity and enmity that extends beyond territorial or geographical proximity. According to Cannon and Donelli (2019), the Middle East and the HoA are two distinct RSCs, but they share a high level of security interdependence. Verhoeven (2018) also described the Middle East and the HoA regions as interdependent in terms of security.…”

Fluctuating Regional (Dis‐)Order in the Post‐Arab Uprising Middle East

“…recently endorsed as a major desideratum of Middle East Studies. Current examples areAhmadian and Mohsen's (2019) application of the logic of deterrence to Iran's policy towards Syria,Cannon and Donelli's (2019) work on the dynamics of Middle Eastern regional security complexes,Demmelhuber's (2019) use of the hedging concept to analyse recent foreign policies of Saudi Arabia, Mabon's (2019) contribution on (de-)sectarianization of Middle Eastern regional affairs, and Tsourapas' (2018) research on coercive migration diplomacy looking at Egypt, Jordan, and Libya.…”