ASSURE: a model for the simulation of urban expansion and intra-urban social segregation

Vermeiren, Karolien; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Beckers, Joris; Rompaey, Anton Van

doi:10.1080/13658816.2016.1177641

Cited by 24 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Indeed, the model identified the role of biophysical and socioeconomic variables in predicting future urbanization processes. Despite the strength of this model, further studies are needed to include various non-quantitative and spatially heterogeneous variables of urbanization and land-use changes using social-ecological modeling such as agent-based models [43,[80][81][82].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Fitawok

Derudder

Minale

et al. 2020

Land

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The fast-paced urbanization of recent decades entails that many regions are facing seemingly uncontrolled land-use changes (LUCs) that go hand in hand with a range of environmental and socio-economic challenges. In this paper, we use an integrated cellular automata–Markov chain (CA–MC) model to analyze and predict the urban expansion of and its impact on LUC in the city of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. To this end, the research marshals high-resolution Landsat images of 1991, 2002, 2011, and 2018. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is then used to identify the biophysical and socioeconomic factors underlying the expansion in the research area. It is shown that, during the period of study, built-up areas are rapidly expanding in the face of an overall decline of the farmland and vegetation cover. Drawing on a model calibration for 2018, the research predicts the possible geographies of LUC in the Bahir Dar area for 2025, 2034, and 2045. It is predicted that the conversions of other land-use types into built-up areas will persist in the southern, southwestern, and northeastern areas of the sprawling city, which can mainly be traced back to the uneven geographies of road accessibility, proximity to the city center, and slope variables. We reflect on how our findings can be used to facilitate sustainable urban development and land-use policies in the Bahir Dar area.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Fitawok

Derudder

Minale

et al. 2020

Land

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“…In addition, some studies have argued that regional urban land expansion could impact regional carbon storage. Models have been used to simulate urban land expansion, considering the factors of intra-urban social segregation and the potential for densification within already urban land areas when their present density allows it [17][18][19]. Moreover, some externalities and features of the dynamic evolution of economic activities have an impact on ULE.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the Relationship between Urban Land Expansion and Economic Linkage Using Coupling Analysis: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Chen

Huang

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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Urban land expansion (ULE) has caused negative effects as a result of urbanization and industrialization in China in the past few decades. Strengthening economic linkage and the cooperation among regions has great implications for effectively controlling disorderly ULE and achieving sustainable and intensive land use. Previous research has rarely investigated the relationship between ULE and economic linkage. Therefore, this study analyzes the spatial patterns of ULE and economic linkage in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) of China via social network analysis and a gravity model. Moreover, the spatial relationship and coupling level between ULE and economic linkage are investigated by building a bivariate spatial autocorrelation model and a coupling coordination degree model, respectively. The results indicate that the YREB experienced rapid ULE, and the area increased from 4.24 × 10 4 km 2 in 1990 to 7.89 × 10 4 km 2 in 2015. The cities that experience rapid ULE have gradually transferred from the east to the west of the YREB. In addition, the economic linkage in eastern cities is evidently higher than that of western cities. Our bivariate spatial model further proves that there are strong negative spatial correlation characteristics between ULE and economic linkage. This indicates that the higher the economic linkage, the lower the speed of ULE. Moreover, the coupling coordination between ULE and economic linkage show that the overall coupling stage changed from an antagonistic stage to a running-in stage. However, the coupling coordination in the YREB presented significant spatial heterogeneity, and most cities in urban agglomeration had a relationship between ULE and economic linkage that was barely balanced, slightly unbalanced, or seriously unbalanced. By considering the limitations and obstacles of current initiatives, suggestions and policy implications for sustainable land use at large regional scales are suggested.

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“…This is rather problematic as most of these cities are characterised by very high growth rates and existing knowledge on socioeconomic segregation processes from the developed world are often not applicable in the Global South. While lately some cities of the Global North, such as in the Netherlands and Britain, are characterised by gentrification and a suburbanisation of poverty (Bailey & Minton ; Hochstenbach & Musterd ), many poor dwellers are trapped in slums in the urban centres in developing countries (Vermeiren et al ). The lack of urban expansion and socioeconomic segregation studies in the Global South can partially be attributed to the fact that very few data on these processes are being collected by local and national planning agencies due to insufficient finances, spatial data, and expertise (Elias et al ; Inostroza et al ; Ezquiaga Arquitectura ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection and Simulation of Urban Expansion and Socioeconomic Segregation in the Greater Paramaribo Region, Suriname

Fung-Loy

Rompaey

Hemerijckx

2019

Tijd voor Econ & Soc Geog

Self Cite

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This paper analyses built‐up area expansion and socioeconomic segregation within the Greater Paramaribo Region, Suriname. Built‐up expansion between 1987 and 2015 was assessed via time‐series analysis of Landsat images. By identifying visible spatial residential characteristics in Google Earth© images, the residential built‐up area was differentiated into rich, middle, middle to low, and poor residences, signifying different socioeconomic groups. Results show that the built‐up expansion of the region is primarily controlled by the distance to the previously built‐up area, city centre, and roads, as well as land price. The observed expansion mainly consisted of middle and middle to low residences. Dissimilarity indices demonstrate an increasing socioeconomic segregation, especially between rich and poor. A business‐as‐usual model simulation for 2030 indicates that this segregation is likely to remain.

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ASSURE: a model for the simulation of urban expansion and intra-urban social segregation

Cited by 24 publications

References 35 publications

Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Examining the Relationship between Urban Land Expansion and Economic Linkage Using Coupling Analysis: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Detection and Simulation of Urban Expansion and Socioeconomic Segregation in the Greater Paramaribo Region, Suriname

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