Assumption-Based Planning

Dewar, James

doi:10.1017/cbo9780511606472

Cited by 82 publications

(52 citation statements)

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“…RAND developed the methodology of assumptionbased planning (ABP) primarily to assist U.S. Army clients with mid-and long-term defense planning and to reduce uncertainty and manage risk [44]. Some terminology and ideas from ABP are used in the leading indicator process being proposed in this paper.…”

Section: Assumption-based Leading Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators

Leveson

2015

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

261

130

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Abstract:The goal of leading indicators for safety is to identify the potential for an accident before it occurs. Past efforts have focused on identifying general leading indicators, such as maintenance backlog, that apply widely in an industry or even across industries. Other recommendations produce more system-specific leading indicators, but start from system hazard analysis and thus are limited by the causes considered by the traditional hazard analysis techniques. Most rely on quantitative metrics, often based on probabilistic risk assessments. This paper describes a new and different approach to identifying system-specific leading indicators and provides guidance in designing a risk management structure to generate, monitor and use the results. The approach is based on the STAMP (SystemTheoretic Accident Model and Processes) model of accident causation and tools that have been designed to build on that model. STAMP extends current accident causality to include more complex causes than simply component failures and chains of failure events or deviations from operational expectations. It incorporates basic principles of systems thinking and is based on systems theory rather than traditional reliability theory.

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Section: Assumption-based Leading Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators

Leveson

2015

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

261

130

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“…The fifth step of the process requires the development of hedging actions to "better prepare for the possibility that an assumption will fail, despite efforts to shore it up … ", and is basically done by visualizing a particular scenario of an assumption failing, and planning how to mitigate it. 16 ABP does not comprehensively cover every possible way an assumption can failthese are infinite -but it is effective in getting a plan to account for some salient ways that its assumptions could fail. James Dewar and Carl Builder write that the "job of planning is to isolate and deal with the uncertainties".…”

Section: Assumptions-based Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Making long-range planning work: the case of the US Army's 30-year strategic modernization plan

Kamara

2015

Defense & Security Analysis

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The extensive timespan of evolving assumptions about future adversaries, US military engagements, and technology inherent in the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy can overwhelm the management capacity of planners, and misdirect acquisition investments. Some military scholars have argued that long-range planning is futile due to the complexities of the global security environment. So how can the US Army manage the evolving assumptions inherent in its 30-year modernization strategy to ensure it remains a superior global force? This study will answer the above question by arguing that the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy, while emulative of a similar modernization approach in the threat-based planning environment of the Cold War, is viable if supported by a method and a tool that manage investments and planning assumptions.

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“…We propose a new systematic perspective on how to prepare hydrological research for a more effective way to implement small-scale water intervention research initiatives. Being prepared for and responsive to surprises due to human actions can be achieved by developing scenarios that combine hydrological issues with cost-benefit analysis: in a process similar to RAND studies, providing guidance for an approach that anticipates known surprises (Dewar, 2002). In planning for Figure 6.…”

Section: Towards Systematic Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards systematic planning of small-scale hydrological intervention-based research

Pramana

Ertsen

2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Many small-scale water development initiatives are accompanied by hydrological research to study either the form of the intervention or its impacts. Humans influence both the development of intervention and research, and thus one needs to take human agency into account. This paper focuses on the effects of human actions in the development of the intervention and its associated hydrological research, as hydrological research is often designed without adequate consideration of how to account for human agency and that these effects have not yet been discussed explicitly in a systematic way. In this paper, we propose a systematic planning for hydrological research, based on evaluating three hydrological research efforts targeting small-scale water development initiatives in Vietnam, Kenya, and Indonesia. The main purpose of the three cases was to understand the functioning of interventions in their hydrological contexts. Aiming for better decision-making on hydrological research in smallscale water intervention initiatives, we propose two analysis steps, including (1) consideration of possible surprises and possible actions and (2) cost-benefit analysis. By performing the two analyses continuously throughout small-scale hydrological intervention-based initiatives, effective hydrological research can be achieved.

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Assumption-Based Planning

Cited by 82 publications

References 0 publications

A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators

A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators

Making long-range planning work: the case of the US Army's 30-year strategic modernization plan

Towards systematic planning of small-scale hydrological intervention-based research

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