Associations between weather factors and the spring migration of the damson‐hop aphid, <i>Phorodon humuli</i>

Thomas, Geraint M. H.; Goldwin, G. K.; Tatchell, G. M.

doi:10.1111/j.1744-7348.1983.tb02661.x

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Thomas et al (1983) showed that spring migration of the damson-hop aphid Phorodon humuli (Schrank) is correlated with temperature and rainfall.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models for spring migration of two aphid species Sitobion avenae (F.) and Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) infesting cereals in areas where they are entirely holocyclic

Hansen¹

2006

Agri and Forest Entomology

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1 Cereals can be attacked severely by the grain aphid, Sitobion avenae (F.), and the bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.). The time of migration from winter hosts in spring is important regarding input to decision support systems concerning insecticide treatment of aphids. 2 The present study aimed to construct two separate migration models, which could be used immediately for advisors and farmers but also be part of a decision support system for the chemical control of aphids in winter wheat and spring barley. 3 Winter wheat ( Triticum sativum Lam.) and spring barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.) fields were monitored from 1991 -2005 for the occurrence of grain aphids and bird cherry-oat aphids, and the data were used to construct migration models. 4 The models were constructed based on all 9 years data and subsequently validated by using all 9 years data, excluding 1 year at a time. 5 The migration model for the grain aphid producing the best forecast was obtained with migration date M (number of days from 1 June), degree-days ( DD ) of April ( T a ) and DD of May ( T m ), with the model being M = 265.0 -10.2 log e ( T a ) -35.1 log e ( T m ). 6 The migration model for the bird cherry-oat aphid producing the best forecast was obtained with migration date M (number of days from 15 May), DD of April ( T a ) and DD from 1 -15 May ( T m1 ), with the model being M = 294.4 -34.7 log e ( T a ) -22.5 log e ( T m1 ). 7 The models only worked well in areas where the grain aphid and the bird cherryoat aphid are entirely holocyclic.

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“…Thomas et al (1983) showed that spring migration of the damson-hop aphid Phorodon humuli (Schrank) is correlated with temperature and rainfall.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models for spring migration of two aphid species Sitobion avenae (F.) and Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) infesting cereals in areas where they are entirely holocyclic

Hansen¹

2006

Agri and Forest Entomology

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“…Historically, many authors have used 1 or 2 years of data to validate their models. For example, Thomas et al. (1983) used 2 years to validate models to predict the spring migration of the damson‐hop aphid, P. humuli (Schrank).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar methods have been used by Thomas et al. (1983) to select weather that influences spring migration of the aphid Phorodon humuli (Schrank) and by Pietravalle et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar methods have been used by Thomas et al (1983) to select weather that influences spring migration of the aphid Phorodon humuli (Schrank) and by Pietravalle et al (2003) to select periods in which certain weather variables were most related to the fungal pathogen Septoria tritici Roberge disease severity. Such methods allow the selection of weather periods that may strongly affect population dynamics directly or indirectly without imposing artificial start and end-points to the sequences and can eliminate much irrelevant and noisy information.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An ensemble model for predicting Rhopalosiphum padi abundance

Lankin-Vega

Worner

Teulon

2008

Entomologia Exp Applicata

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A novel modeling method is proposed to predict the abundance of the main vector of barley yellow dwarf virus in autumn sown cereal crops. An ensemble model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) was developed to predict the number of Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) (Homoptera: Aphididae) caught in traps during the autumn flight period at Lincoln, Canterbury, New Zealand, over the period 1982–2003. Artificial neural networks were trained using historical weather data and aphid data collected from a suction trap. Model results were compared with those obtained using multiple regression (MR) models using the same independent variables. Both ANN and MR models were validated by leave‐one‐out validation, in other words, by sequentially jackknifing each year out of the data set, fitting a model to the remaining data, then using that model to predict the number of aphids for each jackknifed year. A linear ensemble of ANN models further improved the predictions and represented the trends in the number of aphids over the 22‐year period very well. The r2 between the predicted and observed numbers of aphids for the ANN models changed from 0.68 to 0.83 using the linear ensemble model, but the ensemble approach did not change the prediction for the MR models. The absolute mean error (ABSME) of prediction was much lower for the ANN ensemble predictions compared to that for the MR models. The ABMSE for the ANN models dropped from 109 to 86 aphids compared to an ABMSE reduction from 245 to 220 aphids for the MR models. We discuss the potential for ensemble models for predicting insect abundance when long‐term historical data are available.

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“…Close relationships between aphid catches and some meteorological variables have been highlighted by several studies. Some authors have analysed the relationship between suction trap catches and meteorological values since the 1980s (T URL , 1980; T HOMAS et al., 1983; W ALTERS and D EWAR , 1986) using linear regressions. More recently, H ARRINGTON et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of autumn and winter meteorological variables on spring aphid populations in the Po valley, Northern Italy

Rongai

Bellocchi

Burzi

2001

J Applied Entomology

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Prediction of aphid populations is crucial to the successful application of control strategies. In previous studies clear relationships between aphid catches and meteorological variables were highlighted. The primary objective of this study was to quantify the effects of autumn and winter meteorological variables on the aphid species populations the following spring. The data on all the species caught at two Italian sites (Ozzano Emilia and Budrio) up to 31 May from 1992 to 1999 were used for this study. Different models were found according to the aphid biological cycle (i.e. holocycle, anholocycle, holo‐anholocycle). A fourth group of minor species, designated as ‘others’, was properly modelled as holo‐anholocycle species. A satisfactory fit was observed when holocycle species were plotted against minimum temperature and precipitation in October, anholocycle species against minimum temperature and precipitation in December–January, holo‐anholocycle species and ‘others’ against wind speed and number of frosty days in November, and minimum temperature and precipitation in December–January. Model response was more consistent at Budrio (open flat site) than at Ozzano Emilia (flat site delimited by a hill). A coherent pattern was found with an overall comparison of the estimates against observations. The possibility offered by these empirical models for forecasting spring aphid populations of all species at a given site is clearly of interest. This first study encouraged further investigation aimed at validating models before applying them in practice.

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Associations between weather factors and the spring migration of the damson‐hop aphid, Phorodon humuli

Cited by 19 publications

References 6 publications

Models for spring migration of two aphid species Sitobion avenae (F.) and Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) infesting cereals in areas where they are entirely holocyclic

Models for spring migration of two aphid species Sitobion avenae (F.) and Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) infesting cereals in areas where they are entirely holocyclic

An ensemble model for predicting Rhopalosiphum padi abundance

Effect of autumn and winter meteorological variables on spring aphid populations in the Po valley, Northern Italy

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