Association rule mining of aircraft event causes based on the Apriori algorithm

Abstract

To reveal complex causes of aircraft events, this paper aims to mine association rules between the trigger probability and relative strength via a modified Apriori algorithm. Clustering is adopted for data preprocessing and TF–IDF value calculation. Causative item sets of aircraft events are obtained based on the accident causation 2–4 model and are coded to establish code indicators. By avoiding the use of statistical methodologies to resolve not-a-number (NaN) values for altering the interrelations among causes, an enhancement in the Apriori algorithm is proposed by considering frequent items. By extracting frequent patterns, in this paper, all the association rules that satisfy three perspectives (support, confidence and lift) are determined by constantly generating and pruning candidate item sets. A network graph is used to visualize the association rules between different unsafe events and all types of causes. Finally, 9835 representative pieces of data, including general unsafe events, general incidents and serious incidents from the Southwest Air Traffic Management Bureau, are selected for analysis. The results show that improper energy allocation, poor conflict resolution ability, inadequate onsite management duties, adoption of a luck mentality, and occurrence of controller oversight are highly correlated with general unsafe events, and failure to rectify incorrect recitation is notably correlated with general incidents, while inadequate manual promotion, lack of conflict judgement and insufficient safety management are strongly correlated with serious incidents. This study quantitatively reveals the potential patterns and characteristics of mutual interactions among various types of historical aircraft events and highlights directions for controllable prevention and prediction of aircraft events.