Association of the COVID-19 Pandemic With Estimated Life Expectancy by Race/Ethnicity in the United States, 2020

Andrasfay, Theresa; Goldman, Noreen

doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.14520

Cited by 43 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a sharp rise in mortality in the United States, with Black and Hispanic communities absorbing a disproportionate share of the impact ( Alsan et al, 2021 ; Andrasfay & Goldman, 2021 ; Woolf, Chapman, et al, 2021 ). Recent research suggests that the 2020 life expectancy drop eliminated much of the progress made in the past decade in narrowing the Black-White life expectancy gap and nearly erased the Hispanic life expectancy advantage ( Andrasfay & Goldman, 2021 ; Woolf, Chapman, et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The unequal burden of the Covid-19 pandemic: Capturing racial/ethnic disparities in US cause-specific mortality

Luck

Preston

Elo

et al. 2022

SSM - Population Health

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Despite a growing body of literature focused on racial/ethnic disparities in Covid-19 mortality, few previous studies have examined the pandemic's impact on 2020 cause-specific mortality by race and ethnicity. This paper documents changes in mortality by underlying cause of death and race/ethnicity between 2019 and 2020. Using age-standardized death rates, we attribute changes for Black, Hispanic, and White populations to various underlying causes of death and show how these racial and ethnic patterns vary by age and sex. We find that although Covid-19 death rates in 2020 were highest in the Hispanic community, Black individuals faced the largest increase in all-cause mortality between 2019 and 2020. Exceptionally large increases in mortality from heart disease, diabetes, and external causes of death accounted for the adverse trend in all-cause mortality within the Black population. Within Black and White populations, percentage increases in all-cause mortality were similar for men and women, as well as for ages 25–64 and 65+. Among the Hispanic population, however, percentage increases in mortality were greatest for working-aged men. These findings reveal that the overall impact of the pandemic on racial/ethnic disparities in mortality was much larger than that captured by official Covid-19 death counts alone.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The unequal burden of the Covid-19 pandemic: Capturing racial/ethnic disparities in US cause-specific mortality

Luck

Preston

Elo

et al. 2022

SSM - Population Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although the estimates indicate some narrowing of the differentials from the previous year, this is entirely due to larger life expectancy reductions among the White population rather than to smaller decreases in either the Black or Latino populations. As with our 2020 estimates (Andrasfay & Goldman, 2021b), we project that the Latino population will experience the largest reduction in life expectancy at birth (3.1 years) in 2021 due to COVID-19. We project that the Black population will experience a 2.1-year reduction in life expectancy at birth in 2021 due to COVID-19, similar to the 1.9-year reduction we estimated for 2020 (Andrasfay & Goldman, 2021b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Specifically, we take the prepandemic life tables to be cause-deleted life tables in which COVID-19 has been eliminated and recover all-cause life tables for 2021 that incorporate COVID-19 mortality. This strategy has been used in previous studies to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on 2020 life expectancy (Andrasfay & Goldman, 2021a, 2021bCastro et al, 2021;Heuveline & Tzen, 2021). Although this procedure does not incorporate excess mortality from causes other than COVID-19, our life expectancy at birth estimate of 1.3 years for the total US population based on this method (Andrasfay & Goldman, 2021b) was within 0.2-years of the official 1.5-year National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) estimate (Arias et al, 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reductions in US life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic by race and ethnicity: Is 2021 a repetition of 2020?

Andrasfay

Goldman

2021

Preprint

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COVID-19 had a huge mortality impact in the US in 2020 and accounted for the majority of the 1.5-year reduction in 2020 life expectancy at birth. There were also substantial racial/ethnic disparities in the mortality impact of COVID-19 in 2020, with the Black and Latino populations experiencing reductions in life expectancy at birth over twice the reduction experienced by the White population. Despite continued vulnerability of the Black and Latino populations, the hope was that widespread distribution of effective vaccines would mitigate the overall impact and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in 2021. In this study, we use cause-deleted life table methods to estimate the impact of COVID-19 mortality on 2021 US period life expectancy. Our partial-year estimates, based on provisional COVID-19 deaths for January-early October 2021 suggest that racial/ethnic disparities have persisted and that life expectancy at birth in 2021 has already declined by 1.2 years from pre-pandemic levels. Our projected full-year estimates, based on projections of COVID-19 deaths through the end of 2021 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, suggest a 1.8-year reduction in US life expectancy at birth from pre-pandemic levels, a steeper decline than the estimates produced for 2020. The reductions in life expectancy at birth estimated for the Black and Latino populations are 1.6-2.4 times the impact for the White population.

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“…As of January 19 th , 2022 the total worldwide COVID-19 related deaths from the beginning of the pandemic in 2019 are around 5.55 million and total infections are around 334 million as of January 19 th , 2022 (Ritchie et al, 2022). Some researchers have measured the impact of these excess deaths on population life expectancy, while others argued that life expectancy is reduced due to COVID-19 deaths (Trias-Llimós and Bilal 2020, Andrasfay and Goldman 2021, Castro et al, 2021, Islam et al, 2021; Venkataramani, O’Brien and Tsai 2021; Woolf, 2021). In general, the approach considered in these studies is one of the commonly accepted techniques using period life tables (Chan, Cheng, and Martin 2021, Yusuf, Martins, and Swanson 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Age-Related Probability of Dying from COVID-19 among Those Infected: A Relative Survival Analysis

Swanson

Poston²,

Krantz³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, the capital city of the province of Hubei in China. Due to the presentation of multiple symptoms at the same time, it is clinically important to understand the probability of dying from COVID-19 vs. the probability of dying from other causes. Methods Using data collected in Hubei that identified by age those who died of COVID-19 or its sequelae among the infected, we constructed a life table showing the conditional probability of dying at age x from COVID-19 and its sequela among those infected. Following the relative survival perspective, we also computed corresponding data for China that matched the format of the life table we constructed from the Hubei study. We then formed ratios of the 10-year conditional portability of dying at age x from COVID-19 for the Hubei COVID-19 victims to the ten-year conditional probability of dying at age x from all non-COVID-19 causes for those not infected by COVID-19 in China as a whole. Findings At every age, the conditional probability of dying from COVID-19 among those infected in Hubei is higher than the conditional probability of dying from all non-COVID-19 causes for China as a whole. Following a general age-related mortality pattern, the conditional probability of dying from COVID-19 from age 20 onward increases monotonically for those who are infected. Relative to the probability of dying in China from all other causes for those not infected, however, it declines monotonically from age 20 to age 70. Interpretation At younger ages the relative conditional probability of dying from CVOD-19 among the infected is substantially higher than it is for those infected who dying of all other causes and while staying higher at all ages, it declines monotonically with age. The monotonic decline in the ratio from age 20 to age 70 is a result of the age-related increase in the probability of dying from one or more of a number of competing causes, which, in the case at hand is manifested in the fact that non-COVID-19 deaths in China among the uninfected were generally increasing at a faster age-related rate than were the COVID-19 deaths to the infected in Hubei.

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Association of the COVID-19 Pandemic With Estimated Life Expectancy by Race/Ethnicity in the United States, 2020

Cited by 43 publications

References 6 publications

The unequal burden of the Covid-19 pandemic: Capturing racial/ethnic disparities in US cause-specific mortality

The unequal burden of the Covid-19 pandemic: Capturing racial/ethnic disparities in US cause-specific mortality

Reductions in US life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic by race and ethnicity: Is 2021 a repetition of 2020?

The Age-Related Probability of Dying from COVID-19 among Those Infected: A Relative Survival Analysis

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