Association of Simulated COVID-19 Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality

Patel, Mehul D.; Rosenstrom, Erik; Ivy, Julie S.; Mayorga, Marı́a E.; Keskinocak, Pınar; Boyce, Ross M.; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller; Smith, Raymond L.; Johnson, Karl; Delamater, Paul L.; Swann, Julie

doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.10782

Cited by 99 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Very recently, the intuition that social distancing remains key during vaccination rollout stimulated few studies on the effects of a vaccine on the adoption of NPIs in specific settings [ 46 – 50 ]. An agent-based model applied to North Carolina showed that lifting NPIs during vaccines distribution would imply a substantial increase in infections and deaths [ 51 ]. Similarly, a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China estimated that NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination to avoid a generalized disease resurgence [ 52 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

2021

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The promise of efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is fulfilled and vaccination campaigns have started worldwide. However, the fight against the pandemic is far from over. Here, we propose an age-structured compartmental model to study the interplay of disease transmission, vaccines rollout, and behavioural dynamics. We investigate, via in-silico simulations, individual and societal behavioural changes, possibly induced by the start of the vaccination campaigns, and manifested as a relaxation in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We explore different vaccination rollout speeds, prioritization strategies, vaccine efficacy, as well as multiple behavioural responses. We apply our model to six countries worldwide (Egypt, Peru, Serbia, Ukraine, Canada, and Italy), selected to sample diverse socio-demographic and socio-economic contexts. To isolate the effects of age-structures and contacts patterns from the particular pandemic history of each location, we first study the model considering the same hypothetical initial epidemic scenario in all countries. We then calibrate the model using real epidemiological and mobility data for the different countries. Our findings suggest that early relaxation of safe behaviours can jeopardize the benefits brought by the vaccine in the short term: a fast vaccine distribution and policies aimed at keeping high compliance of individual safe behaviours are key to mitigate disease resurgence.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

2021

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“…Even with the expanding uptake of vaccination, non-pharmaceutical interventions will remain critical components of pandemic control [ 24 ]. Therefore, easily accessible, effective testing strategies must be rigorously studied to inform public health policy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

At-home testing to mitigate community transmission of SARS-CoV-2: protocol for a public health intervention with a nested prospective cohort study

et al. 2021

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Background The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to evolve as a global health crisis. Although highly effective vaccines have been developed, non-pharmaceutical interventions remain critical to controlling disease transmission. One such intervention—rapid, at-home antigen self-testing—can ease the burden associated with facility-based testing programs and improve testing access in high-risk communities. However, its impact on SARS-CoV-2 community transmission has yet to be definitively evaluated, and the socio-behavioral aspects of testing in underserved populations remain unknown. Methods As part of the Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics–Underserved Populations (RADx-UP) program funded by the National Institutes of Health, we are implementing a public health intervention titled “Say Yes! COVID Test” (SYCT) involving at-home self-testing using a SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen assay in North Carolina (Greenville, Pitt County) and Tennessee (Chattanooga City, Hamilton County). The intervention is supported by a multifaceted communication and community engagement strategy to ensure widespread awareness and uptake, particularly in marginalized communities. Participants receive test kits either through online orders or via local community distribution partners. To assess the impact of this intervention on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we will conduct a non-randomized, ecological study using community-level outcomes. Specifically, we will evaluate trends in SARS-CoV-2 cases and hospitalizations, SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater, and population mobility in each community before, during, and after the SYCT intervention. Individuals who choose to participate in SYCT will also have the option to enroll in an embedded prospective cohort substudy gathering participant-level data to evaluate behavioral determinants of at-home self-testing and socio-behavioral mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. Discussion This is the first large-scale, public health intervention implementing rapid, at-home SARS-CoV-2 self-testing in the United States. The program consists of a novel combination of an at-home testing program, a broad communications and community engagement strategy, an ecological study to assess impact, and a research substudy of the behavioral aspects of testing. The findings from the SYCT project will provide insights into innovative methods to mitigate viral transmission, advance the science of public health communications and community engagement, and evaluate emerging, novel assessments of community transmission of disease.

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“…In conclusion, we should carefully explore a manageable degree of restrictions and their relaxation. The importance of the combination of vaccine rollout and NPIs has been shown in other studies as well [50,51]. We will have to keep bracing for occasional surges of the disease leading to strict measures, such as those under a state of emergency.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Simulation of future COVID-19 epidemic by vaccination coverage scenarios in Japan

Furuse

2021

J Glob Health

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Association of Simulated COVID-19 Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality

Cited by 99 publications

References 47 publications

The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

At-home testing to mitigate community transmission of SARS-CoV-2: protocol for a public health intervention with a nested prospective cohort study

Simulation of future COVID-19 epidemic by vaccination coverage scenarios in Japan

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