Association of hypertension and incident diabetes in Chinese adults: a retrospective cohort study using propensity-score matching

Abstract

Background Previous studies have revealed that hypertension is one of major risk factors of incident diabetes. However, reliable quantification of the relationship between hypertension and diabetes risk is limited, especially in Chinese people. We aimed to investigate the association between hypertension and risk of incident diabetes in a large cohort of Chinese population. Methods This was a retrospective propensity score-matched cohort study. We enrolled 211809 Chinese adults without diabetes at baseline between 2010 and 2016. The target independent and dependent variable were hypertension at baseline and incident diabetes during follow-up respectively. The one to one propensity score matching using a non-parsimonious multivariable logistic regression was conducted to balance the confounders between 28,946 hypertensive patients and 28,946 non-hypertensive participants. The doubly robust estimation method was used to investigate the association between hypertension and incident diabetes. Result After propensity-score matching, the cumulative incidence of diabetes among hypertensive and non-hypertensive participants were 1627.690 per 100,000 person-years and 1414.422 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. In the propensity-score matching cohort, compared to the non-hypertensive participants, the risk of incident diabetes increased by 14.0% among hypertensive subjects (HR = 1.140, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.058–1.229, P = 0.00063). After adjusting for the demographic and clinical covariates, diabetes risk increased by 13.1% in the hypertensive group (HR = 1.131, 95%CI: 1.049–1.220, P = 0.00143). And diabetes risk increased by 15.4% among hypertensive subjects after adjusting for the propensity score (HR = 1.154, 95%CI:1.070–1.244, P = 0.00019).In the subgroup analysis, compared to non-hypertensive participants with low propensity score, the risk of incident diabetes increased by 2.6 times among hypertensive patients with high propensity score (HR = 3.610,95%CI: 2.604–5.005,P < 0.00001). In the sensitivity analysis, the risk of diabetes in the hypertensive group increased by 11.7% in the original cohort (HR = 1.117༌95%CI: 1.044–1.196,P = 0.00134) and 19.9% in the weighted cohort(HR = 1.199༌95%CI: 1.149–1.250,P < 0.00001), respectively. Conclusion Hypertension was associated with a 13.1% increase in the risk of developing diabetes in Chinese adults. Additionally, compared to non-hypertensive participants with low propensity score, the risk of incident diabetes increased by 2.6 times among hypertensive patients with high propensity score.

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