Association Between Waist Circumference Change and Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Chinese Adults: An 18-year Cohort Study

Abstract

Background The aim of our study was to investigate waist circumference (WC) change and the risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among Chinese adults.Methods A total of 8,164 participants aged 20-35 years were recruited who attended health examination with the repeat measurements of WC and lung function (forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)) from 2001 to 2019. The data of same measurements were collected at their age of 38-53 years. Participants were categorized by WC change as ≤-2.5%, -2.5% to 2.5%, 2.5% to 5% and ＞5% according to gender. The modified Poisson regression models were used to assess the association of WC gain and the risk of COPD.Results During 18-year follow-up, a total of 917 COPD cases were identified. From baseline to follow-up, the mean of FEV1 decreased from 3.20 L to 2.79 L among male participants and 2.28 L to 1.95 L among female participants. Comparing with participants who were not abdominal obesity at both baseline and follow-up, participants with abdominal obesity among both genders after the follow-up were associated to the greater risk of COPD regardless of abdominal obesity at baseline. The risk of incident COPD increased 19% among male participants (RR=1.19, 95%CI=1.04-1.48) and 14% among female participants (RR=1.14, 95%CI=1.01-1.40) when WC gain increased ＞5% during the 18-year follow-up. The COPD risk decreased 28% among male participants with WC change ≤-2.5% (RR=0.82, 95%CI=0.67-0.99).Conclusions The risk of incident COPD was positively associated with increasing WC for both genders among Chinese adults.