Association between outdoor temperature and fatal police shootings in the United States, 2015–2021

Abstract

Background: Here, we investigate the association between outdoor temperature and fatal police shootings in the United States between 2015 and 2021. Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study. Data on fatal police shootings were from the Washington Post’s Fatal Force database and temperature data were from Daymet. Results: A 5°C increase in maximum same-day temperature was associated with a 1.033 (95% CI = 1.002, 1.065) increased odds of a fatal police shooting. In stratified analyses, the strongest associations were observed in victims who were armed (OR, 1.052 [95% CI = 1.017, 1.088), White (OR, 1.052 [95% CI = 1.006, 1.100), or aged 45+ (OR, 1.110 [95% CI = 1.044, 1.181]). In additional subgroup analyses, relative risks were also generally higher among those who were armed. Conclusions: There is evidence of an association between outdoor temperature and fatal police shootings in the United States, particularly when the victims were reported as armed. This study cannot determine if the associations are a result of any specific causes (e.g., increased police aggression or other factors).