Association between climate variability and hospital visits for non-cholera diarrhoea in Bangladesh: effects and vulnerable groups

Hashizume, Masahiro; Armstrong, Ben; Hajat, Shakoor; Wagatsuma, Yukiko; Faruque, A. S. G.; Hayashi, Taiichi; Sack, David A.

doi:10.1093/ije/dym148

Cited by 232 publications

(224 citation statements)

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“…We collected daily observational data for temperature (maximum, minimum and mean), rainfall, mean wind speed, sun hours, radiation, relative humidity and mean pressure. These climate factors were selected on the basis of their reported relationships to morbidity (Barreca and Shimshack, 2012;Bhaskaran et al, 2010;Hashizume et al, 2007;Schwartz et al, 2004). Air pollution is known to have a significant role in some disease exposures that compound the effect of sudden changes in climate factors on health (World Health Organisation (WHO), 2006).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given an expected rise in global mean temperature of 30 0 C by 2071-2100, extra deaths of 86,000 are projected every year, (Menne et al, 2008). Other climate factors are found to be affecting various disease categories, including rainfall with Diarrhoea (Hashizume et al, 2007); humidity with heart disease (Schwartz et al, 2004) and influenza (Barreca and Shimshack, 2012); COPD with wind speed (Ferrari et al, 2012). Air pollution also plays as a triggering factor in the detrimental role of climate fluctuations (Carson et al, 2006;World Health Organisation (WHO), 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions

Islam

Chaussalet

Koizumi

2017

Environmental Research

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Identification of 'cut-points' or thresholds of climate factors would play a crucial role in alerting risks of climate change and providing guidance to policymakers. This study investigated 2 a 'Climate Threshold' for emergency hospital admissions of chronic lower respiratory diseases by using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We analysed a unique longitudinal dataset relative humidity (≤ 40%), high Pm10 level (≥70-µg/m 3 ), low wind speed (≤ 2 knots) and high rainfall (≥30mm). Beyond the threshold values, a significantly higher number of emergency admissions due to lower respiratory problems would be expected within the following 2-3 days after the climate shift in the Greater London. The approach will be useful to initiate 'region and disease specific' climate mitigation plans. It will help identify spatial hot spots and the most sensitive areas and population due to climate change, and will eventually lead towards a diversified health warning system tailored to specific climate zones and populations.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions

Islam

Chaussalet

Koizumi

2017

Environmental Research

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“…10,11 Evidence from European and American cities suggests that when outdoor temperatures are unusually high, there is a rise in hospital admissions 10,[12][13][14][15] for respiratory ailments, renal diseases, 12 and infectious diseases (both vector-borne and foodborne) and cerebrovascular accidents, including subarachnoid haemorrhage 13 and transient ischaemic attacks. [16][17][18][19][20][21][22] The risk of admission appears to be higher among the critically ill, 23 the very young, the very old, people of low socioeconomic status, 24 people with pre-existing medical conditions, 12,16 health-care workers, pregnant women 25 and people who are institutionalized, live alone or have poor mobility. 24 Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), China, has recorded one of the world's highest average increases in ambient temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hospital admissions as a function of temperature, other weather phenomena and pollution levels in an urban setting in China

Chan

Goggins

Yue

et al. 2013

Bull. World Health Organ.

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“…Therefore, Bangladesh may face more extreme weather events and related disasters in the future due to the increase in the mean values of temperature and rainfall. Rainfall intensity and temperature are positively correlated with the occurrence of cholera and diarrheal diseases (Rowland 1986, Hashizume et al 2007). On the other hand, increased pre-monsoon precipitation can reduce the groundwater demand for irrigation and may help to decrease the pressure on groundwater resources.…”

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Recent trends in the climate of Bangladesh

2010

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Rainfall and temperature data recorded at 17 meteorological stations over the time period 1958-2007 were used to assess recent changes in the climate of Bangladesh. The results show increasing mean, mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures at a rate of 0.103, 0.091 and 0.097°C per decade, respectively. More warming was observed for winter compared to other seasons. Increases in annual and pre-monsoon rainfall were also observed at a rate of 5.53 and 2.47 mm yr -1 , respectively. The spatial pattern of rainfall trends shows an increase in annual, monsoon and premonsoon rainfall in the western part of Bangladesh. The findings of the present study are consistent with the results obtained in other parts of the Indian subcontinent. KEY WORDS: Climate variability · Trend analysis · GIS · Bangladesh Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 42: [185][186][187][188][189][190][191][192][193] 2010 ing the period 1961-1991 with a maximum increase in September followed by that in July. The only work carried out so far on temperature trends in Bangladesh is by Jones (1995), who analyzed the monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures over the period and found no significant change in annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures. This contradicts the results obtained in the regions of India bordering Bangladesh (Pant & Rupa Kumar 1997). A large amount of scientific literature is available on the variability of rainfall and temperature of India (Mooley & Parthasarathy 1984, Rupa Kumar et al. 1992, Pant & Rupa Kumar 1997, Sinha Ray & De 2003, Arora et al. 2005, Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008. These studies show an increase in the annual mean temperature over India in the last 100 yr, with a higher increase in winter temperature compared to pre-monsoon summer temperature. On the other hand, no statistically significant trend has been observed in monsoon rainfall over India as a whole (Thapliyal & Kulshrestha 1991, Pant & Rupa Kumar 1997. However, Rupa Kumar et al. (1992) reported that there are areas over India with decreasing rainfall, and other areas with increasing trends.Climate models have been used to predict the change in rainfall and temperature of Bangladesh and India (Manabe et al. 1991, Stephenson et al. 2001, Kripalani et al. 2003, Agrawala et al. 2003, May 2004, Dash et al. 2006, Immerzeel 2008. However, consensus has not yet been reached on the projected strength of monsoon circulation and the quantum of rainfall. May (2004) used a climate model to study the rainfall pattern over the tropical Indian Ocean and predicted an increase in intensity of heavy rainfall events in Bangladesh. Immerzeel (2008) predicted seasonal increases in precipitation from 2000 to 2100, with more increases in the monsoon season compared to other seasons for the Brahmaputra basin. Rupa Kumar et al. (2006) projected a marked increase in both rainfall and temperature in India towards the end of the 21st century under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Kripalani...

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Association between climate variability and hospital visits for non-cholera diarrhoea in Bangladesh: effects and vulnerable groups

Abstract: The number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases increased both above and below a threshold level with high and low rainfall in the preceding weeks. The number of cases also increased with higher temperature, particularly in those individuals at a lower socio-economic and sanitation status.

Cited by 232 publications

References 15 publications

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions

Hospital admissions as a function of temperature, other weather phenomena and pollution levels in an urban setting in China

Recent trends in the climate of Bangladesh

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