Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in a model of fertility choice

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may ABSTRACTThis paper provides a simple theoretical framework to discuss the relationship between assisted reproductive technologies and the microeconomics of fertility choice. Individuals make choices of education and work along with decisions about whether and when to have children. Decisions regarding fertility are influenced by policy and labor market factors that affect the earnings opportunities of mothers and the costs of raising children. We show how observed differences in these economic factors across countries explain observed different fertility and childbearing age patterns. We then use the model to predict behavioral responses to biomedical improvements in assisted reproductive technologies, and hence the impact of these technologies on fertility. NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARYIn virtually every industrialized country the total fertility rate has been declining for more than four decades, and ever since the 1980s it has been below the 2.1 children per woman needed for a population to replace itself. Countries with sub-replacement fertility fall into two distinct groups. In countries where birth rates are moderately below replacement level, the population size falls only slowly and, if considered necessary, can be supplemented with migration. In contrast, countries where the fertility rate has fallen below 1.5 births per woman and has stayed below this threshold are said to be locked into a ``low fertility trap''. The anticipated economic consequences for countries in the low fertility trap are manifold, from a shortage of skilled young workers to a population ageing-related slowdown in the growth of GDP to an increase in age-related public spending. Demographers have recognized that a small increase or stabilization of total fertility could help countries in or at the brink of the low fertility trap prevent these economic problems from taking effect. Traditionally, most debates on stabilizing fertility rates focused on policies such as flexible working, maternity and paternity leave, and increasing benefits for second and third children. However, policymakers have recently started to take note of the potential role in stabilizing fertility rates of assisted reproductive technologies.This paper pursues two related objectives. The first half of the paper develops a simple model that allows us to explain the different reproductive patterns observed across industrialized and emerging countries. In the second half of ...

Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility

“…Second, the availability of ART may trigger unintended behavioural responses by encouraging couples to stay childless for longer (Abramowitz, 2014(Abramowitz, & 2017Rainer et al, 2011;Gershoni & Low, 2021), hence increasing their risk of experiencing infertility and of underachieving their reproductive plans. This is especially relevant when considering the widespread misconceptions in the population regarding the biological limits to reproduction and the chances of achieving conception and birth at later ages via ART (Pedro et al, 2018).…”

Fertility choices in China under the two-child policy

“…The fertility rate in China dropped rapidly from 6 births per woman in the late 1970s to 2.2 births per woman at the beginning of the 1980s, largely as a result of the one-child policy (Bongaarts and Greenhalgh, 1985). When a country has a fertility rate lower than 1.5 children per woman for several consecutive years, it can be argued that the country is locked in a ‘low fertility trap’ (Rainer et al, 2011). This low fertility trap, which is often reported after the relaxation of stringent population control policies, has already been observed in South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore (Goldstein et al, 2009), and may well happen in China.…”

What shapes public attitudes towards assisted reproduction technologies?

“…Whereas the childlessness rate is high in the Netherlands, Italy and the German-speaking countries, it is low and stable, for example, in Portugal and Eastern-European countries (Miettinen et al 2015). When it comes to fertility treatments, the biggest users of IVF and artificial insemination are individuals in countries where both fertility rate and the proportion of births among older women is high, such as Anglo-Saxon, Continental European 3 and Nordic countries (Rainer et al 2008).…”