Asset Management Support Tool for Energy Systems using AHP and Monte Carlo Methods applied to Power Transformers

Abstract

The assets of electric power transmission systems are characterized by their high cost and complexity, leading utilities to seek ways to improve the efficiency and economic-financial performance of these assets. Thus, this article proposes a tool to support asset management for electricity transmission systems. This tool considers the useful life of the equipment, its importance to the system, financial aspects, and the forecast of electricity demand. An evaluation of the criteria that impact decision-making on the replacement of assets with specialists was carried out. Thus, the tool uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process method to classify the most critical equipment in the system. For analysis of future scenarios, the Monte Carlo Method was incorporated into the tool to simulate the behavior of equipment during a defined time horizon. As a result, the tool presents a ranking of the most critical equipment in the system under analysis within the simulated time horizon. The tool was applied in a case study with real data in the power transformer of a Brazilian utility. The tool helps in decision-making indicating changes that may be made in the period under review, their likely impact on equipment loading, and the list of critical transformers in the system.