Assessment of Variability in Hydrological Droughts Using the Improved Innovative Trend Analysis Method

Ashraf, Muhammad Salman; Shahid, Muhammad; Waseem, Muhammad; Azam, Muhammad; Rahman, Khalil Ur

doi:10.3390/su15119065

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Several researchers have assessed the impacts of climate change on different regions around the globe [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. In addition, various studies have assessed rainfall trends for different regions around the world (e.g., [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Assessment in Greece Using SPI and ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data

Kourtis,

Vangelis,

Tigkas

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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The present work aims to assess the spatial variability and the trends of the annual rainfall and meteorological drought in the entire territory of Greece utilising the ERA5 reanalysis precipitation dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which spans from January 1940 to December 2022 (an 83-year period). Drought assessment took place based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for timescales ranging from 1 month to 12 months. Evaluation was carried out by calculating SPI using observed rainfall data from five meteorological stations. The annual rainfall and drought severity trends for timescales of 1 (SPI-1), 3 (SPI-3), 6 (SPI-6) and 12 (SPI-12) months were analysed using the Theil–Sen slope method and the Mann–Kendall trend test. The results indicate significant, both increasing and decreasing, annual precipitation trends at the 95% significance level for the Aegean Islands, western Crete and western mainland of Greece. The results also indicate significant drought trends for SPI-12 for the Aegean Islands and western Peloponnese. Trend analysis for SPI-1, SPI-3 and SPI-6 indicate a mixture of non-significantly increasing wetting trends and increasing drought trends at the national scale. In conclusion, the ERA5 dataset seems to be a valuable tool for drought monitoring at the spatial scale.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Assessment in Greece Using SPI and ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data

Kourtis,

Vangelis,

Tigkas

et al. 2023

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As a rank-based non-parametric test (Mann 1945;Kendall 1975;Ashraf et al 2023), applying the Mann-Kendall test is popular in the analysis of hydrological and meteorological data. The following equation is employed to determine S which is the statistics of the Mann-Kendall test (Berhail et al 2022):…”

Section: Mann-kendall Test (M-k Test)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Mann-Kendall test (Mann 1945;Kendall 1975) is of widespread practice for the investigation of trends (Alam et al 2023). The method has been employed by several researchers (Ashraf et al 2023;Suhana et al 2023;Dufera et al 2023;Thi et al 2023) in the detection of trends. Innovative trend analysis (ITA) which has been developed and assessed by Şen (2012) and Şen (2017) is the method employed by many researchers (Alam et al 2023;Achite et al 2023;Yuce et al 2023;Soylu Pekpostalci et al 2023) for detecting the behavior of different drought types.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

Robleh,

Yuce,

Esit

et al. 2024

Environ Earth Sci

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Drought, a major phenomenon impacting water resources, viability, sustainability, and the economy, has been one of the most important hydrological concerns. In the literature, it has been classified into four groups that are meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Meteorological drought expresses the precipitation deficits when they are significantly below those recorded normal times. In this study, using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and mean monthly precipitation records of 17 stations which have been obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology of Türkiye, a drought monitoring analysis has been conducted for Kızılırmak Basin, which is the second largest water basin of the country and water source of many provinces allowing for the time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months considering the cases of “dry” (SPI ≤ − 1.5) and “wet” (SPI ≥ 1.5). To detect the possible trends in two categories of Severe and Extreme Drought, SED (SPI ≤ − 1.5), and Severe and Extreme Wet, SEW (SPI ≥ 1.5) of all time scales, a developed form of innovative trend analysis (ITA) is performed by adding two vertical lines. In addition, a traditional the Mann–Kendall test is applied to the SPI series. The findings indicate that dry occurrences tend to outnumber wet occurrences across various time scales. Analysis reveals that a significant majority of results across all time scales exhibit a consistent trend (89%), with a notable increase in the SEW category (62.74%) and a decrease in the SED category (60.78%). Mann–Kendall analysis demonstrates that 67% of the observed trends show a decrease, while 33% show an increase across all time scales.

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Exploring temperature dynamics in Madhya Pradesh: a spatial-temporal analysis

Kumar,

Rautela

et al. 2023

Environ Monit Assess

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Assessment of Variability in Hydrological Droughts Using the Improved Innovative Trend Analysis Method

Cited by 5 publications

References 73 publications

Drought Assessment in Greece Using SPI and ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data

Drought Assessment in Greece Using SPI and ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data

Meteorological drought monitoring in Kızılırmak Basin, Türkiye

Exploring temperature dynamics in Madhya Pradesh: a spatial-temporal analysis

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