Assessment of the urban heat island in the city of Tehran using reliability methods

Jahangir, Mohammad Sina; Moghim, Sanaz

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.038

Cited by 25 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Extreme events in summer and winter can cause significant consequences on human health (Montero et al, 2010;ul Islam et al, 2009;de'Donato et al, 2013;Barnett et al, 2012;Lee et al, 2018;Sherbakov et al, 2018;Jahangir and Moghim, 2019). The heat wave and cold spell are extreme weather phenomena, which happen when hot or cold extreme temperature lasts for a sequence of days (Barnett et al, 2012 andOuzeau et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, to consider uncertainties associated with extreme events, a probabilistic approach is required. One of the widely used methods to analyze and quantify uncertainties in climate studies is the Bayesian approach (Coles and Pericchi, 2003;76 Jackson et al, 2004;Smith et al, 2009;Siliverstovs et al, 2010, Jahangir andMoghim, 2019). Khaliq et al (2007) assessed heat waves' occurrences using a Bayesian change-point approach in Montreal, Canada.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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WITHDRAWN: Reliability Framework for Characterizing Heat Wave and Cold Spell Events

Moghim

Jahangir

2021

Preprint

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Extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells affect people’s lives. This study uses a probabilistic framework to evaluate heat waves and cold spells in different regions (Tehran in Iran and Vancouver in Canada). Average daily temperatures of meteorological stations of the two cities from 1995 to 2016 are used to identify four main indicators including intensity, average intensity, duration, and the rate of the occurrence. In addition, average intensities of the events are obtained from the MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) in each pixel of the two cities. To include possible uncertainties, the predictive probability distributions of the intensity and duration are derived using a Bayesian scheme and Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. The probability distributions of the indicators show that the most extreme temperature (lowest temperature) occurs during the cold spell. Results indicate that although Tehran is more probable to experience heat waves than Vancouver, both cities are more likely to be affected by the cold spell than the heat wave. The developed approach can be used to characterize other extreme weather events in any location.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

WITHDRAWN: Reliability Framework for Characterizing Heat Wave and Cold Spell Events

Moghim

Jahangir

2021

Preprint

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“…These results are more likely due to higher solar radiation intensity and photochemical reactions in the early afternoon and the absence of photochemical reactions in the late night and after midnight [4,7,16,28,30]. A more recently study conducted by Jahangir and Moghim investigated urban heat island (UHI) in the city of Tehran using reliability methods [29]. The pattern of hourly ambient O 3 concentrations in our study was exactly similar to the reported UHI at hourly level by Jahangir and Moghim [29].…”

Section: We Compared the Daily Maximum 8-h Mean Of O 3 A C R O S S S T A T I O N S I N T E H R A N W I T H W O R L D H E A L T Hsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…They reported that ambient air temperature has an interesting spatiotemporal pattern across different districts of Tehran. Based on their findings, the northern part of Tehran city which is more elevated has a lower ambient air temperature relative to the western, southern, and south-western parts of Tehran [29]. Therefore, spatial distribution of ambient O 3 concentration across Tehran has an interesting variation.…”

Section: Overview Of O 3 Concentrationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Human, Forest and vegetation health metrics of ground-level ozone (SOMO35, AOT40f and AOT40v) in Tehran

Faridi

Akbari

Faridi

et al. 2020

J Environ Health Sci Engineer

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Purpose We aimed to investigate the spatial O 3 indices (SOMO35: annual sum of maximum daily 8-h ozone means over 35 ppb, AOT40: the accumulated exposure over an hourly threshold of 40 ppb during daylight hours between 8:00 and 20:00 in the growing seasons of plants) in Tehran (2019-2020). Methods The data of ambient O 3 concentrations, measured at twenty-three regulatory ambient air quality monitoring stations (AQMSs) in Tehran, were obtained. Results The annual mean O 3 concentrations were found to be 15.8-25.7 ppb; the highest and lowest annual mean concentration of ambient O 3 were observed in Shahrdari 22 and Shahr-e-Rey stations, respectively. Spatial distribution of exposure to O 3 across Tehran was in the range of 1.36-1.64; the highest O 3 concentrations were observed in the northern, west and south-western parts of Tehran, while the central and south areas of Tehran city experienced low to moderate concentrations. The indices of SOMO35, AOT40f and AOT40v across AQMSs in Tehran was in the range of 1830-6437 ppb. Days, 10,613-39,505 ppb.h and 4979-16,804 ppb.h, respectively. For Tehran city, the indices of SOMO35 and AOT40f were 4138 ppb. days and 27,556 ppb.h respectively.Our results revealed that the value of SOMO35 across AQMSs of Tehran was higher than the recommended target value of 3000 ppb. days. Conclusions To reduce O 3 pollution and its effects on both human and plants health, the governmental organizations should take appropriate sustainable control policies.

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A probabilistic climate change assessment for Europe

Moghim

Teuling

Uijlenhoet

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Globally, the impacts of climate change can vary across different regions. This study uses a probability framework to evaluate recent historical and near-future projected (until 2049) climate change across Europe using Climate Research Unit and ensemble climate model datasets (under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). A historical assessment shows that although the east and west of the domain experienced the largest and smallest increase in temperature, changes in precipitation are not as smooth as temperature. Results indicate that the maximum changes between distributions of the variables (temperature and precipitation) mainly occur at extreme percentiles (e.g., 10% and 90%). A group analysis of four subregions of Europe, namely east (G1), north (G2), west/ south (G3), and UK/Ireland (G4), shows that G1 and G4 are expected to have the largest increase in temperature and precipitation extremes, respectively.Although maximum increases in temperature in G3 and G4 occur at larger percentiles, G1 and G2 experience maximum increases at both large and small percentiles. The maximum increase of precipitation over the study domain, however, occurs mainly at larger extremes. To quantify changes in the distribution of projection (2020-2049) relative to the historical reference , two measures are defined, namely a change in occurrences (KS statistic) and intensities at different quantiles (Δ). Results confirm that the temperature distribution tends to shift to higher temperatures. Changes in distribution and extremes of precipitation are spatially variable. Furthermore, extremes are expected to be intensified under RCP 8.5. The quantile analysis and defined measures reveal changes in the entire probability distribution, reflecting possible climate changes in the future.

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Assessment of the urban heat island in the city of Tehran using reliability methods

Cited by 25 publications

References 53 publications

WITHDRAWN: Reliability Framework for Characterizing Heat Wave and Cold Spell Events

WITHDRAWN: Reliability Framework for Characterizing Heat Wave and Cold Spell Events

Human, Forest and vegetation health metrics of ground-level ozone (SOMO35, AOT40f and AOT40v) in Tehran

A probabilistic climate change assessment for Europe

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