Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century

Abstract

We have used the China Homogenized Historic Temperature dataset and some long-term station series of the neighbor countries from CRUTEM3, a 5°×5° gridded dataset of monthly mean temperature since 1900, to provide a 107-year record of surface temperature trends and variability. We derived a comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates to accompany the data: measurement and sampling errors, uncertainties in temperature bias estimates, and uncertainties arising from limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been estimated. We reanalysed the temperature changes during the period of record. The best estimates of trends for 1900-2006 with uncertainties at 95% confidence range are about 0.09±0.017°C/decade for the year as a whole, and 0.14±0.021°C/decade, 0.11±0.021°C/decade, 0.04±0.017°C/decade, and 0.07±0.017°C/decade for winter, spring, summer and autumn respectively. For 1954-2006, the trends for annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn are: 0.26±0.032°C/decade, 0.35±0.046°C/decade, 0.25±0.051°C/decade, 0.16±0. 037°C/decade and 0.22±0.055°C/decade. Winter saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2006 and 1954-2006, while during the most recent period (the satellite era, 1979-2006), all the seasons show similar warming trends: 0.45±0.13°C/decade, 0.51±0.11°C/decade, 0.52±0.16°C/decade, 0.37±0.10°C/decade and 0.50±0.16°C/decade for annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn. Trends arising from urbanization have been evaluated as less than 5% of the total warming trend for 1951-2001, so this bias was not removed

Temporal Trends and Spatial Patterns of Temperature and Its Extremes over the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (1960–2014), China

“…Slope of annual temperature ( I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III Slope of autumn temperature ( III IV V I II III IV V I II III IV V I II III coincides with TA change trends identified in the China territory [59,60], in regions such as the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River Basin [61], arid and semiarid regions in northwest China [62], and those in the monsoon area of eastern China [63]. TA results for the different stages showed some differences to those recorded for the entire study period.…”

Instrumental temperature series in eastern and central China back to the nineteenth century

“…For example, the linear trend of annual mean SAT for China during 1906-2005 (1908-2007) is 0.34°C/100 years (0.42°C/100 years) for the LYT series, 0.53°C/100 years (0.59°C/100 years) for the WYG series, 0.86°C/100 years (0.96°C/100 years) for the TD series, and 0.95°C/100 years (1.11°C/100 years) for the TR series [Tang et al, 2009]. The linear trend of the LD series is approximately 0.9°C/100 year during 1900-2006 [Li et al, 2010], referred to as the LQX series. This great range (from 0.30°C/100 years to 1.11°C/100 years) principally results from differences in the period before 1951 [Tang et al, 2009], where there is greater uncertainty in the series and potential flaws in some of the analysis methods used to develop the long-term SAT series.…”

“…In this series, however, the homogeneity of the time series was not discussed and only a limited number of series extended back before 1940. Using the homogeneity assessment technique of two-phase regression (TPR), Li et al [2010] constructed time series of station SAT during 1873-2004, referred to as the LD series, in which the missing data before 1951 were not interpolated.…”

Regionalization and Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought in China Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (1961–2013)

“…Datasets' quality, continuity, and homogeneity have been checked by China Metrological Administration [33]. The daily dataset contains 839 stations, while monthly dataset only includes 756 stations.…”