Assessment of the tsunami-induced current hazard

Lynett, Patrick; Borrero, José C.; Son, Sangyoung; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, Kevin M.

doi:10.1002/2013gl058680

Cited by 71 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Lynett et al (2014) developed a damage index of ports and their facilities based on the numerically predicted or instrumentally recorded data of tsunamis current in California. Previously, Suppasri et al (2013a) and Muhari et al (2013) introduced loss functions to indicate the damage probability of marine vessels subjected to tsunami hazards.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of tsunami hazards in ports and their impact on marine vessels derived from tsunami models and the observed damage data

Muhari

Charvet

Futami³

et al. 2015

Nat Hazards

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This paper presents a detailed study of tsunami hazard in ports and its correlation with the damage suffered by marine vessels. The study aims to develop a new loss function to estimate the potential damage of marine vessels due to tsunami attack based on a novel multivariate statistical modeling method, which used several explanatory variables simultaneously to estimate an outcome or the probability of such outcome. In the first part of the paper, tsunami heights and velocities are numerically modeled by using highresolution bathymetry and topography data for the southern part of Honshu Island. We apply statistical methods to the complete sequence of spatially distributed time series of tsunami parameters in order to obtain the best fit with the observed damage data. In the second part, we develop loss functions for marine vessels by using ordinal regression, which uses simultaneously several explanatory variables. We perform several statistical tests to determine the appropriate model variables to be used in developing three-dimensional loss estimation surfaces, which provide probability of loss for each combination of measured or simulated values of tsunami parameters. The main feature of the developed loss functions presented in this study is their capability to integrate the key factors influencing the damage probability, such as tsunami parameters, characteristics of marine vessels and the impact of collision experienced by the vessels during the tsunami. Such a robust method, therefore, is crucially important to understand the tsunami impact on ports and, particularly on marine vessels.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of tsunami hazards in ports and their impact on marine vessels derived from tsunami models and the observed damage data

Muhari

Charvet

Futami³

et al. 2015

Nat Hazards

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“…As mentioned above, recent studies in California [44] established methodologies for assessing tsunami current hazards in ports. In New Zealand, Borrero et al [45] systematically extended this analysis to four major ports using the database-driven approach described above.…”

Section: Port-specific Studies and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results, as shown in figure 7, suggest that tsunami currents are more sensitive to source location than are tsunami heights. These sorts of assessments can be used to identify locations in ports that are particularly susceptible to strong currents as in Lynett et al [44]. Results from this modelling effort have been integrated into tools for use by emergency managers in New Zealand to provide port-specific warning guidance and information.…”

Section: Port-specific Studies and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lynett et al [44] summarize recent harbour hazard mapping efforts in California. In this paper, a simple correlation was found between hindcasted (modelled) currents and observed damage.…”

Section: History Of Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Efforts In Modern Portsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This current-damage connection allows for the generation of damage potential maps, which can be used for both during-event positioning of vessels as well as longterm planning of harbour infrastructure. Indeed, the work of Lynett et al [44] is leading to the development of US national guidelines for maritime tsunami hazard assessment and products by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Outside of the USA, this approach was used by Borrero et al [45] to assess the tsunami hazard at ports in New Zealand.…”

Section: History Of Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Efforts In Modern Portsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tsunami currents in ports

Borrero

Lynett

Kalligeris

2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Tsunami-induced currents present an obvious hazard to maritime activities and ports in particular. The historical record is replete with accounts from ship captains and harbour masters describing their fateful encounters with currents and surges caused by these destructive waves. Despite the well-known hazard, only since the trans-oceanic tsunamis of the early twenty-first century (2004, 2010 and 2011) have coastal and port engineering practitioners begun to develop port-specific warning and response products that accurately assess the effects of tsunami-induced currents in addition to overland flooding and inundation. The hazard from strong currents induced by far-field tsunami remains an underappreciated risk in the port and maritime community. In this paper, we will discuss the history of tsunami current observations in ports, look into the current state of the art in port tsunami hazard assessment and discuss future research trends.

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Kinematic earthquake source inversion and tsunami runup prediction with regional geophysical data

2015

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Rapid near‐source earthquake source modeling relying only on strong motion data is limited by instrumental offsets and magnitude saturation, adversely affecting subsequent tsunami prediction. Seismogeodetic displacement and velocity waveforms estimated from an optimal combination of high‐rate GPS and strong motion data overcome these limitations. Supplementing land‐based data with offshore wave measurements by seafloor pressure sensors and GPS‐equipped buoys can further improve the image of the earthquake source and prediction of tsunami extent, inundation, and runup. We present a kinematic source model obtained from a retrospective real‐time analysis of a heterogeneous data set for the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku‐Oki, Japan, earthquake. Our model is consistent with conceptual models of subduction zones, exhibiting depth dependent behavior that is quantified through frequency domain analysis of slip rate functions. The stress drop distribution is found to be significantly more correlated with aftershock locations and mechanism types when off‐shore data are included. The kinematic model parameters are then used as initial conditions in a fully nonlinear tsunami propagation analysis. Notably, we include the horizontal advection of steeply sloping bathymetric features. Comparison with post‐event on‐land survey measurements demonstrates that the tsunami's inundation and runup are predicted with considerable accuracy, only limited in scale by the resolution of available topography and bathymetry. We conclude that it is possible to produce credible and rapid, kinematic source models and tsunami predictions within minutes of earthquake onset time for near‐source coastal regions most susceptible to loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure, regardless of earthquake magnitude.

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Assessment of the tsunami-induced current hazard

Cited by 71 publications

References 16 publications

Assessment of tsunami hazards in ports and their impact on marine vessels derived from tsunami models and the observed damage data

Assessment of tsunami hazards in ports and their impact on marine vessels derived from tsunami models and the observed damage data

Tsunami currents in ports

Kinematic earthquake source inversion and tsunami runup prediction with regional geophysical data

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