Assessment of the Reproductive Potential of Ethnic Groups in the Baltic States

Abstract

In the post-Soviet period, attention is paid to the depopulation problem in the Baltic States, caused by the natural decline and migration outflow. At the same time, there is a change in the amount of certain ethnic groups in the population of these states. The purpose of the study is to assess the prospects for the reproductive potential of ethnic groups in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The study was carried out within ethnic demography, a scientific discipline that has developed at the intersection of demography, ethnography, and anthropology. The article presents the results of forecasting the number of major ethnic groups in the Baltic States for the long term (until 2061) using original methodological tools. In all three Baltic states, against the background of population decline, the share of titular ethnic groups is expected to grow – the highest in Latvia, the less significant in Estonia, and the minimum in Lithuania. The share of Russians (the most significant is in Latvia) and other ethnic groups will continue to decrease due to their low reproductive potential. In general, the tendency of the Baltic countries to move away from the complex ethnic structure of the population in the Soviet period towards mono-ethnicity will continue.