Assessment of the Potential of European Union Member States to Achieve Climate Neutrality

Abstract

Climate neutrality is the main environmental goal set for the European Union Member States until 2050. EU economies can achieve this ambitious climate goal by reducing the emission intensity of economies, which has been achieved for many years by reducing pollution emitted by industry. The aim of the study is focused primarily on demonstrating the degree of relationship between the variables describing economic growth, GDP, and the level of CO2 emissions. In the first stage of the research, the potential of countries to achieve climate neutrality was assessed, which was achieved by estimating the correlation between GDP indices in relation to 2013 and the level of CO2 emissions. Research has shown that despite the countries’ differences in the structure of their energy balances, they can achieve independence of economic growth from the emission level of their economies. The research also concerns Poland’s special situation compared to other European Union countries according to energy balance based on coal. A model based on differential equations was used to simulate the impact of GDP, energy intensity, and the share of biofuels on temperature and CO2 concentration until 2030, using data for Poland as an example. The aim of this analysis is to answer the question of whether the energy transformation in the country will achieve the assumed emission reduction goals by 2030.