Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan region during present climate: part I

Ghimire, Santosh R.; Choudhary, Anubhav; Dimri, A. P.

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2747-2

Cited by 73 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…For other basins, such an added value of CX-SA experiments has been seen only from EC-EARTH_RCA4 that suggests the realistic onset timings for Ganges and Brahmaputra and slightly improved bias for Mekong. The performance assessment of the eleven CX-SA experiments over the Himalayan region has also reported higher skill of EC-EARTH_RCA4 [59]. Interestingly, those CX-SA experiments that are performed with the CCAM RCM always achieve the monsoon onset earlier than their driving CMIP5 experiments for all basins, whenever such an offset was statistically significant ( Table 3).…”

Section: Statistical Properties Of Monsoonal Precipitation Regimementioning

confidence: 91%

“…Such dry and wet biases are greater in CX-SA experiments than in CMIP5 experiments. Analysis of precipitation characteristics from the eleven CX-SA experiments over the Himalayan region likewise suggests a wet (dry) bias over the Himalayan region (plains) [59]. Earlier studies have also reported a consistent wet bias over the Himalayan region from the vintage to the present-day GCMs [76,77], as well as, from their dynamically downscaled derivatives, including CX-SA experiments [60,62,[78][79][80][81][82].…”

Section: Monsoonal Precipitation Regimementioning

confidence: 92%

“…Only exceptions are EC-EARTH-RCA4 and MPI-ESM-LR for Indus and CNRM-CM5 for Ganges. Recent analysis on the eleven CX-SA experiments over the Himalayan region has also reported high fidelity of EC-EARTH_RCA4 [59]. For Mekong, the most of CMIP5 experiments are very close to OBS, however, CX-SA experiments suggest a mixed response of under-/overestimation.…”

Section: Statistical Properties Of Monsoonal Precipitation Regimementioning

confidence: 98%

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Seasonality of Precipitation over Himalayan Watersheds in CORDEX South Asia and their Driving CMIP5 Experiments

Hasson

2016

Atmosphere

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Abstract:Since the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments exhibit limited skill in reproducing the statistical properties of prevailing precipitation regimes over the major Himalayan watersheds (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong), this study evaluates the anticipated added skill of their dynamically refined simulations performed under the framework of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments for South Asia (CX-SA). For this, the fidelity of eight CX-SA experiments against their six driving CMIP5 experiments is assessed for the historical period in terms of time-dependent statistical properties (onset/retreat timings and rapid fractional accumulation-RFA) of the dominant summer monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR). Further, a self-defining seasonality index (SI), which is a product of precipitation and the distance of its actual distribution relative to its uniform distribution (relative entropy-RE), has been computed for MPR, westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. The time evolution of precipitation, RE and SI has also been analyzed. Results suggest that CX-SA experiments simulate even higher wet biases than their driving CMIP5 experiments over all study basins, mainly due to higher wet biases simulated over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Most of the CX-SA experiments suggest unrealistic timings of the monsoon onset that are far earlier than their driving CMIP5 experiments for all basins. Generally, CX-SA experiments feature higher underestimation of RFA slope, RE and SI, distancing their driving CMIP5 experiments farther from observations. Interestingly, regardless of the diverse skill of CMIP5 experiments, their fine scale CX-SA experiments exhibit quite a similar skill when downscaled by the same regional climate model (RCM), indicating RCM's ability to considerably alter the driving datasets. These findings emphasize on improving the fidelity of simulated precipitation regimes over the Himalayan watersheds by exploiting the potential of RCMs in term of microphysics, resolutions and convective closures, and preferably, on resolving the crucial fine scale processes further down to their representative (meso-to-local) scales.

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Section: Statistical Properties Of Monsoonal Precipitation Regimementioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Monsoonal Precipitation Regimementioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Statistical Properties Of Monsoonal Precipitation Regimementioning

confidence: 98%

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Seasonality of Precipitation over Himalayan Watersheds in CORDEX South Asia and their Driving CMIP5 Experiments

Hasson

2016

Atmosphere

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“…RCPs are numbered after their increased radiative forcing until year 2100 (+2.6, +4.5, and +8.5 W/m 2 , respectively; [46]). Note that more climate projections are becoming available over the South Asian domain through the CORDEX initiative (e.g., [47]). …”

Section: Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent

Pechlivanidis

Olsson

Bosshard

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:The impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Indian subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the Distribution-Based Scaling (DBS) method and used to force the HYPE hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. We also assess the changes in the annual cycles in three major rivers located in different hydro-climatic regions. Results show that conclusions can be influenced by uncertainty in the RCP scenarios. Future scenarios project a gradual increase in temperature (up to 7˝C on average), whilst changes (both increase and decrease) in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration are more severe at the end of the century. The potential change (increase and decrease) in runoff could reach 100% depending on the region and time horizon. Analysis of annual cycles for three selected regions showed that changes in discharge and evapotranspiration due to climate change vary between seasons, whereas the magnitude of change is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. Irrigation needs and the snow depth in the Himalayas are also affected.

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“…The coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) South Asia RCM simulations use an ensemble of different models and have a spatial resolution of 0.44°($50 km) (Ghimire et al, 2015), which is high resolution relative to GCMs. Statistical downscaling, a less computationally expensive method, in which local climate parameters are related to large-scale modelled variables, can also be applied.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate impact assessment and “islandness”

Foley

2017

IJCCSM

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If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation.*Related content and download information correct at time of download. in climate impact assessments, to explore potential climate futures. However, characteristics often associated with "islandness", such as smallness, land boundedness and isolation, may mean that climate impact assessment methods applied at broader scales cannot simply be downscaled to island settings. This paper aims to discuss information needs and the limitations of climate models and datasets in the context of small islands and explores how such challenges might be addressed.Design/methodology/approach -Reviewing existing literature, this paper explores challenges of islandness in top-down, model-led climate impact assessment and bottom-up, vulnerability-led approaches. It examines how alternative forms of knowledge production can play a role in validating models and in guiding adaptation actions at the local level and highlights decision-making techniques that can support adaptation even when data is uncertain.Findings -Small island topography is often too detailed for global or even regional climate models to resolve, but equally, local meteorological station data may be absent or uncertain, particularly in island peripheries. However, rather than viewing the issue as decision-making with big data at the regional/global scale versus with little or no data at the small island scale, a more productive discourse can emerge by conceptualising strategies of decision-making with unconventional types of data.Originality/value -This paper provides a critical overview and synthesis of issues relating to climate models, data sets and impact assessment methods as they pertain to islands, which can benefit decision makers and other end-users of climate data in island communities.

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Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan region during present climate: part I

Cited by 73 publications

References 65 publications

Seasonality of Precipitation over Himalayan Watersheds in CORDEX South Asia and their Driving CMIP5 Experiments

Seasonality of Precipitation over Himalayan Watersheds in CORDEX South Asia and their Driving CMIP5 Experiments

Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent

Climate impact assessment and “islandness”

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