Assessment of the Influence of Selected Factors on the Punctuality of an Urban Transport Fleet

Abstract

Urban transport systems operate according to fixed, strict timetables, which requires high timeliness and technical readiness of the fleet. Therefore, this article proposes a detailed study of the punctuality of the public transport system using a multiple regression model for the main modes of transport (trams, buses, and Warsaw Metro). The analysis made it possible to go beyond the framework of the overall assessment and to identify the factors that have a significant effect on the punctuality index and to indicate the degree of this effect. The obtained results are a universal tool to assess the punctuality level of the urban transport fleet and to support decision making in the scope of organization of their work, which can be implemented in any similar transport system. The specification of the number of breakdowns, road accidents, or unauthorized stopping of a vehicle as the main causes of delays is the basis for taking corrective measures related to the improvement of the fleet operation system, or for preventive measures. The development of such models is practical in both public transport systems and similar companies providing transport services. For such institutions, the parameter of punctuality is extremely important and affects the quality of the services offered and the reputation of the company, which translates into the number of customers and potential profit. Therefore, it is important to investigate the factors that shape the punctuality of the tasks performed. It allows for shaping the processes of fleet control and management. It is also worth emphasizing the scientific aspect of the publication, which is the presentation of the possibilities of applying selected mathematical models in such analyses, indication of the conditions of their application, and presentation of possible results together with their interpretation.

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